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Sweden already has 1 death per 10,000 population (0.01% per capita, not per case) and rate is increasing. Spain is 1 per 2,500 (0.04%). NY state is 1 per 1,200,

Sweden already has 1 death per 10,000 population (0.01% per capita, not per case) and rate is increasing. Spain is 1 per 2,500 (0.04%). NY state is 1 per 1,200, soon to be 1 per 1,000 (0.1% per capita). This is with lockdown [0] [0] http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

nabla9 7y ago
According to Giesecke projection, the total number of deaths will be around 6000, 2-3 times the deaths from annual influenza. (currently 1,511 have died from COVID-19 in Sweden)
- glofish 7y ago
  right or wrong, he'll be proven so relatively shortly, after all the rate will either rise exponentially as the alarmist say, or stays the same and slowly drops as he claims
glofish 7y ago
the whole point of the argument is that it does not matter what you do everyone will end up in the same situation
- koheripbal 7y ago
  Which is obviously wrong because it's been demonstrated that if infections get out of control and hospitals are overwhelmed, a higher percentage of infections before fatal. This was shown in the difference in death rates in Wuhan vs other cities in China. ...as well as northern Italy vs other provinces in Italy.
- twic 7y ago
  "Hiding infections in the future is not the same as avoiding them": https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-mo...
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
jdminhbg 7y ago
The rate of deaths in Sweden is not increasing. Even accounting for reporting delays, the peak was weeks ago: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/ https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
- mgsouth 7y ago
  Um, no, the deaths-per-capita can't decrease unless people are being resurrected. The rate of increase can slow, but the Johns Hopkins data doesn't even show that happening (looking at new deaths/wk). Although it does show the acceleration declining, and it's possible the rate of increase is flattening out this week. If so, then Sweden's per-capita death rate will be increasing by 6%/day. The chart you linked to bears that out. As itself says, it's excluding estimated delays from the last 7 days, so the last really solid numbers are up to April 10th. Everything before that is increasing exponentially. Even if we assume the backlog has stopped increasing (blue bars getting bigger), which is what the grey estimates are based upon, then Sweden is still getting another 70 or so deaths per day, which means the per-capita death rate is going up by 7/million every day.
  - jdminhbg 7y ago
    You said the "rate is increasing." Rate indicates deaths per time. Deaths per time is not increasing.

nabla9 7y ago

According to Giesecke projection, the total number of deaths will be around 6000, 2-3 times the deaths from annual influenza. (currently 1,511 have died from COVID-19 in Sweden)

glofish 7y ago
right or wrong, he'll be proven so relatively shortly, after all the rate will either rise exponentially as the alarmist say, or stays the same and slowly drops as he claims

glofish 7y ago

the whole point of the argument is that it does not matter what you do everyone will end up in the same situation

koheripbal 7y ago
Which is obviously wrong because it's been demonstrated that if infections get out of control and hospitals are overwhelmed, a higher percentage of infections before fatal. This was shown in the difference in death rates in Wuhan vs other cities in China. ...as well as northern Italy vs other provinces in Italy.
twic 7y ago
"Hiding infections in the future is not the same as avoiding them": https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-mo...
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

jdminhbg 7y ago

The rate of deaths in Sweden is not increasing. Even accounting for reporting delays, the peak was weeks ago: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/ https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

mgsouth 7y ago
Um, no, the deaths-per-capita can't decrease unless people are being resurrected. The rate of increase can slow, but the Johns Hopkins data doesn't even show that happening (looking at new deaths/wk). Although it does show the acceleration declining, and it's possible the rate of increase is flattening out this week. If so, then Sweden's per-capita death rate will be increasing by 6%/day. The chart you linked to bears that out. As itself says, it's excluding estimated delays from the last 7 days, so the last really solid numbers are up to April 10th. Everything before that is increasing exponentially. Even if we assume the backlog has stopped increasing (blue bars getting bigger), which is what the grey estimates are based upon, then Sweden is still getting another 70 or so deaths per day, which means the per-capita death rate is going up by 7/million every day.
- jdminhbg 7y ago
  You said the "rate is increasing." Rate indicates deaths per time. Deaths per time is not increasing.