Thank you, that’s insightful. An honest (not cynical) follow up question: Would that in consequence mean that in your perspective, an expert who in mid February

Thank you, that’s insightful. An honest (not cynical) follow up question: Would that in consequence mean that in your perspective, an expert who in mid February somewhat speculative had pointed to a possible outbreak in Italy or elsewhere in Europe - based on predictive scenario modeling and probabilities - had done a worse job than one who ruled out such a possibility, by relying exclusively on that moment’s available data (despite virus data lagging a few weeks)?