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The surge in demand is being driven almost entirely by state unemployment systems. Most of these systems haven't seen a surge in unemployment claims since the

The surge in demand is being driven almost entirely by state unemployment systems. Most of these systems haven't seen a surge in unemployment claims since the 2009 recession and haven't had to change the underlying rules governing eligibility in even longer. Once the systems are patched and/or the surge in new claims subsides, 90% of this sudden demand for "Cobalt programmers" will evaporate. It's one thing for retired mainframe programmers to come out of retirement and work as consultants for a few months, it's quite another to start changing CS curricula nationwide along with launching mainframe bootcamps for career changers. I'd urge caution.

carlmr 7y ago
Whenever you see "urgent need" in headlines it's too late to profit from this crisis. If anything learn COBOL in about 10 years for the next crisis.
- TAForObvReasons 7y ago
  There were pre-crisis efforts to address this. NJ for example awarded a contract to Electronic Data Systems (now HP) which fell by the wayside [1]. Given the complexities of total rewrites compared to patchwork, I'd bet there will still be demand in the future. [1] https://www.nj.com/politics/2014/11/nj_ends_118_million_contract_to_boost_enrollment_in_obamacare_other_social_service_programs.html https://www.nj.com/politics/2014/11/nj_ends_118_million_cont...
- zeckalpha 7y ago
  Maybe the 2038 problem?
  - segfaultbuserr 7y ago
    To be fair, Linux kernel devs have been working hard to solve the problem for years, with progress coming in every new kernel version. The works required at the kernel upstream is almost completed [0]. Now the ball moves to libc, and the progress is optimistic. Indeed, what happens to those already deployed legacy systems and programs are another story. [0] https://lwn.net/Articles/776435/ https://lwn.net/Articles/776435/
vageli 7y ago
> The surge in demand is being driven almost entirely by state unemployment systems. Most of these systems haven't seen a surge in unemployment claims since the 2009 recession and haven't had to change the underlying rules governing eligibility in even longer. Once the systems are patched and/or the surge in new claims subsides, 90% of this sudden demand for "Cobalt programmers" will evaporate. I generally agree but I also believe that this whole exercise might be an impetus for some states to migrate these services to more modern languages to prevent this type of crisis in the future.
- jasonjayr 7y ago
  If you had to chose an environment or programming language that you expect to survive, in regards to talent pool + tech availability for 30+ years today, what would you choose?
  - jabedude 7y ago
    C + Linux. That seems to be the most promising tech with regards to longevity that exists today.
    - ardy42 7y ago
      > C + Linux. That seems to be the most promising tech with regards to longevity that exists today. It really depends on the application. C & Linux will literally be around forever, but C isn't the best language for a line-of-business application like an unemployment system. Java would be a better fit for something like that.
      - mdtusz 7y ago
        Just curious, what's your reasoning for thinking C wouldn't be a good fit? I'd think either would be fine choices given their ubiquity. (Not a C or Java programmer, just like to learn!)
        7y ago
gwern 7y ago
And at such low pay, too: > As recently as this week, jobs boards such as Indeed and Dice.com listed hundreds or in some cases thousands of openings for mainframe positions at all levels. Advertised pay ranges from $30 to $35 an hour for a junior mainframe developer to well over $150,000 a year for a mainframe database administration manager. If you are talented and patient enough to do software archeology which will affect millions of people, I think you can make (a lot) more elsewhere.

carlmr 7y ago

Whenever you see "urgent need" in headlines it's too late to profit from this crisis. If anything learn COBOL in about 10 years for the next crisis.

TAForObvReasons 7y ago
There were pre-crisis efforts to address this. NJ for example awarded a contract to Electronic Data Systems (now HP) which fell by the wayside [1]. Given the complexities of total rewrites compared to patchwork, I'd bet there will still be demand in the future. [1] https://www.nj.com/politics/2014/11/nj_ends_118_million_contract_to_boost_enrollment_in_obamacare_other_social_service_programs.html https://www.nj.com/politics/2014/11/nj_ends_118_million_cont...
zeckalpha 7y ago
Maybe the 2038 problem?
- segfaultbuserr 7y ago
  To be fair, Linux kernel devs have been working hard to solve the problem for years, with progress coming in every new kernel version. The works required at the kernel upstream is almost completed [0]. Now the ball moves to libc, and the progress is optimistic. Indeed, what happens to those already deployed legacy systems and programs are another story. [0] https://lwn.net/Articles/776435/ https://lwn.net/Articles/776435/

vageli 7y ago

> The surge in demand is being driven almost entirely by state unemployment systems. Most of these systems haven't seen a surge in unemployment claims since the 2009 recession and haven't had to change the underlying rules governing eligibility in even longer. Once the systems are patched and/or the surge in new claims subsides, 90% of this sudden demand for "Cobalt programmers" will evaporate. I generally agree but I also believe that this whole exercise might be an impetus for some states to migrate these services to more modern languages to prevent this type of crisis in the future.

jasonjayr 7y ago
If you had to chose an environment or programming language that you expect to survive, in regards to talent pool + tech availability for 30+ years today, what would you choose?
- jabedude 7y ago
  C + Linux. That seems to be the most promising tech with regards to longevity that exists today.
  - ardy42 7y ago
    > C + Linux. That seems to be the most promising tech with regards to longevity that exists today. It really depends on the application. C & Linux will literally be around forever, but C isn't the best language for a line-of-business application like an unemployment system. Java would be a better fit for something like that.
    - mdtusz 7y ago
      Just curious, what's your reasoning for thinking C wouldn't be a good fit? I'd think either would be fine choices given their ubiquity. (Not a C or Java programmer, just like to learn!)
      - 7y ago

gwern 7y ago

And at such low pay, too: > As recently as this week, jobs boards such as Indeed and Dice.com listed hundreds or in some cases thousands of openings for mainframe positions at all levels. Advertised pay ranges from $30 to $35 an hour for a junior mainframe developer to well over $150,000 a year for a mainframe database administration manager. If you are talented and patient enough to do software archeology which will affect millions of people, I think you can make (a lot) more elsewhere.