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What I expect from leading experts is to give clear opinions and recommendations based on their best assesment of the situation given available data. I also exp
by jlundborg 6y ago
What I expect from leading experts is to give clear opinions and recommendations based on their best assesment of the situation given available data. I also expect them to quickly and humbly adapt to new evidence when it is found, while keeping in mind that new is not always better.
I don't expect experts to always be right, sometimes the best prediction turns out to be incorrect. This does not change the fact that it was the best prediction at the time it was made, given the available data.
I personally feel that this is exactly what Tegnell is doing in public discourse, he is very quick to point out when there are uncertainties and what the nature of it is, but is still able to present clear advise. He has also demonstrated willingness to change when new evidence is found. This is a far cry from what I see many politicians are doing, and I think this is the reason he is enjoying very high trust from the Swedish general population.
- imartin2k 6y agoThank you, that’s insightful. An honest (not cynical) follow up question: Would that in consequence mean that in your perspective, an expert who in mid February somewhat speculative had pointed to a possible outbreak in Italy or elsewhere in Europe - based on predictive scenario modeling and probabilities - had done a worse job than one who ruled out such a possibility, by relying exclusively on that moment’s available data (despite virus data lagging a few weeks)?