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In the Netherlands with about 3.5k deaths on 17 M pop the estimation for infection rate is 3%, based on tests done on people giving blood. I'm not certain wheth
by wjnc 7y ago
In the Netherlands with about 3.5k deaths on 17 M pop the estimation for infection rate is 3%, based on tests done on people giving blood. I'm not certain whether that 3% is an under- or overstatement (people giving blood usually more active than average, but also younger than the average inflicted and you won't go in when actively ill). It's a long stretch from a 3% to anywhere near herd protection though. The 40% infection rate for Sweden seems too high.
- lancebeet 7y agoThe 40% infection rate is an estimate for Stockholm, not for all of Sweden. The Stockholm region has less than a quarter of the Swedish population (2.3 million out of 10 million) but well over half of the covid-19 deaths (816 out of 1442). Stockholm is also the region with the lowest average age in the country, and the largest proportion of one-person households, so the fatality in the region might be skewed down.
- wjnc 7y agoMy Norse isn't what it used to be but you're still looking at an 8x difference per capita with the Norwegian number following from a mathematical model and the Dutch number coming from inference based on blood measurements. I don't know what's true, but 40% with 816 deaths seems low. That's a mortality <0.1%.