Professions exist that effectively have negative knowledge about their field, in the sense that they do worse than smart generalists at making predictions. Clo

Professions exist that effectively have negative knowledge about their field, in the sense that they do worse than smart generalists at making predictions. Closest to home, I'd say Software Engineering mostly fits this description. 90% of people who call themselves that are terrible at actually making software. Or, for example, most of the best fiction is not written by English Literature majors. Perhaps epidemiology is like that. Based on what I've seen in the last few months, I'm not impressed.