> Surely if you’re ready for more than 10% of 1-in-10 events, your probabilities are just as wrong as other people’s Disagree, it depends how much it costs to

> Surely if you’re ready for more than 10% of 1-in-10 events, your probabilities are just as wrong as other people’s Disagree, it depends how much it costs to be ready, and how much it costs to be unprepared if the 1-in-10 event happens.