2 ms·

> so in what way is it smarter? In what way is it different? As Alexander said repeatedly, it's cost-benefit analysis. See my other post in this thread. If yo

> so in what way is it smarter? In what way is it different? As Alexander said repeatedly, it's cost-benefit analysis. See my other post in this thread. If you go through life only preparing for the things you are certain will happen, you are quite likely to experience some avoidable unpleasantness.

jodrellblank 7y ago
This doesn't answer my question. If you prepare for it, then you are acting as if you think it will happen. That is, if you thought it would definitely happen you would do the same thing you are doing now, therefore the two states are indistinguishable except for the story in your head - and the main point about the story seems to be "I don't think it will happen therefore I'm better than the people who do think it will happen, even though we are both expending the same effort, doing the same preparations, to avoid the exact same problem" Chanting "cost benefit analysis" doesn't change anything.
- roenxi 7y ago
  > If you prepare for it, then you are acting as if you think it will happen. That isn't the case. Preparation isn't a binary state either - people can be more or less prepared for an occurrence. The estimated likelihood of an event changes how much time and effort should be spent preparing to it. There is a big difference in how people behave if they thing there is a 0%, 0.05% or 98% chance of being mugged when they go outside for example. The 0.05% case would rationally start avoiding people late at night or not carrying valuables. The 98% person would not go outside.
- mannykannot 7y ago
  > This doesn't answer my question. Of course, if you persist in dismissing everything that makes a difference, then you will never figure out what the difference is. You are being inconsistent in the way you presume (mostly mistakenly, I believe) various opinions and motives on the part of Scott Alexander, while attempting to reject opinions, motives and rational thought as being relevant to the behavior of people who prepared for C19. > Chanting "cost benefit analysis" doesn't change anything. Well, I agree that "chanting" (i.e. explaining to someone who will not listen, apparently) will not change anything (and least of all your understanding of the issues), but actually practicing cost-benefit analysis effectively does make a difference - as we can see, for example, in the difference in how C19 is progressing in South Korea and in Britain.

jodrellblank 7y ago

This doesn't answer my question. If you prepare for it, then you are acting as if you think it will happen. That is, if you thought it would definitely happen you would do the same thing you are doing now, therefore the two states are indistinguishable except for the story in your head - and the main point about the story seems to be "I don't think it will happen therefore I'm better than the people who do think it will happen, even though we are both expending the same effort, doing the same preparations, to avoid the exact same problem" Chanting "cost benefit analysis" doesn't change anything.

roenxi 7y ago
> If you prepare for it, then you are acting as if you think it will happen. That isn't the case. Preparation isn't a binary state either - people can be more or less prepared for an occurrence. The estimated likelihood of an event changes how much time and effort should be spent preparing to it. There is a big difference in how people behave if they thing there is a 0%, 0.05% or 98% chance of being mugged when they go outside for example. The 0.05% case would rationally start avoiding people late at night or not carrying valuables. The 98% person would not go outside.
mannykannot 7y ago
> This doesn't answer my question. Of course, if you persist in dismissing everything that makes a difference, then you will never figure out what the difference is. You are being inconsistent in the way you presume (mostly mistakenly, I believe) various opinions and motives on the part of Scott Alexander, while attempting to reject opinions, motives and rational thought as being relevant to the behavior of people who prepared for C19. > Chanting "cost benefit analysis" doesn't change anything. Well, I agree that "chanting" (i.e. explaining to someone who will not listen, apparently) will not change anything (and least of all your understanding of the issues), but actually practicing cost-benefit analysis effectively does make a difference - as we can see, for example, in the difference in how C19 is progressing in South Korea and in Britain.