4 ms·
I'm aware of them. None of them let you bet (for money) on the number of COVID-19 cases with a % likelihood like OP describes.
by starpilot 6y ago
I'm aware of them. None of them let you bet (for money) on the number of COVID-19 cases with a % likelihood like OP describes.
- SilasX 6y agoTrue story: Intrade let you bet on the swine flu count, as reported in major media sources, and I bet that there would be 50,000 cases in the US by the end of June 2009. Then they changed it to "CDC official count" before the bet resolved, and the CDC decided to stop updating it, so I lost the bet even though there were 50k cases by the terms of the original bet.
- breischl 6y agoWere they allowed to do that under the terms of the contract or something like that? If not, it sounds like fraud. If so, it sounds like a way to never make any significant payouts...
- SilasX 6y agoNot like I could sue, since it was hosted in Ireland :-( And in effect they could do whatever they wanted.
- TheCowboy 6y agoI still play on GJOpen if not only because the variety of topics is greater but I also like some of the players there and what they have to say. Brier score approaches also feel more rigorous.