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I was more or less convinced by the discussion in mid-February at https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we

I was more or less convinced by the discussion in mid-February at https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/ https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-i... and https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be-in-a-pandemic/ https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be... that there was a reasonable chance of needing to take some modest steps to prepare for a pandemic. The predictions in these blog posts about pandemic best practices were in retrospect fairly accurate (see e.g. discussion under "Social distancing will be important but unpleasant") and have been a pretty good guide for the first month of major international response. We're kind of into uncharted waters now though, and I'm wondering who else will have accurate predictions of how the next year or two will go.

kd5bjo 7y ago
> We're kind of into uncharted waters now though, and I'm wondering who else will have accurate predictions of how the next year or two will go. There have been several out-of-control pandemics in human history that we can look at. It’s true that lots of things have changed between the Bubonic plague sweeping through Europe and now, but people are still people; there may be some insights there. You’d have to ask a historian (I’m not one). As different regions get this under control, I expect there to be health screenings required for international travel. In the old days, this was quarantine for inbound travellers, but adding a week or two to travel times is a lot less palatable now. We now have other, faster, ways of determining if someone is ill and I expect them to be deployed to protect areas that have succeeded.