6 ms·

Where do you bet for money to "support yourself"? Good Judgment Open doesn't have cash awards.

graeme 6y ago
Had they made that bet with out options in mid to late feb they could be a millionaire. For political bets you can bet on betting sites. Much harder to earn an income though.
- tomp 6y ago
  Although market reaction is fundamentally hard to predict. It caughy many by surprise that markets reacted positively when Trump was elected. Or when there’s 150k people dead from coronavirus.
- TheCowboy 6y ago
  This is one of the rare times that I obviously should have done just that, but usually it's hard (for me at least) to really think of ways to carry some forecast over into the stock markets.
  - graeme 6y ago
    Yeah I’m kicking myself over it. I knew enough to withdraw my money from the market on the 24th (took the decision the 22nd on a weekend). But I literally forgot about puts. I was under the impression you had to be an accredited investor. I was thinking about withdrawing on the 20th/21st of feb, when spread happened in Korea and Italy locked down some northern towns. Puts were still very cheap then.
    - TheCowboy 6y ago
      I try not to beat myself over things like this but it's good to explore why I didn't make a decision and absorb any lessons.
      - graeme 6y ago
        Yeah I did the latter. Now I know how the relevant instruments work if another such opportunity arises.
NateEag 6y ago
Prediction markets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Stock markets and futures exchanges can be reasonably modeled as placing bets, too.
- starpilot 6y ago
  I'm aware of them. None of them let you bet (for money) on the number of COVID-19 cases with a % likelihood like OP describes.
  - SilasX 6y ago
    True story: Intrade let you bet on the swine flu count, as reported in major media sources, and I bet that there would be 50,000 cases in the US by the end of June 2009. Then they changed it to "CDC official count" before the bet resolved, and the CDC decided to stop updating it, so I lost the bet even though there were 50k cases by the terms of the original bet.
    - breischl 6y ago
      Were they allowed to do that under the terms of the contract or something like that? If not, it sounds like fraud. If so, it sounds like a way to never make any significant payouts...
      - SilasX 6y ago
        Not like I could sue, since it was hosted in Ireland :-( And in effect they could do whatever they wanted.
  - TheCowboy 6y ago
    I still play on GJOpen if not only because the variety of topics is greater but I also like some of the players there and what they have to say. Brier score approaches also feel more rigorous.

Had they made that bet with out options in mid to late feb they could be a millionaire. For political bets you can bet on betting sites. Much harder to earn an income though.

tomp 6y ago
Although market reaction is fundamentally hard to predict. It caughy many by surprise that markets reacted positively when Trump was elected. Or when there’s 150k people dead from coronavirus.
TheCowboy 6y ago
This is one of the rare times that I obviously should have done just that, but usually it's hard (for me at least) to really think of ways to carry some forecast over into the stock markets.
- graeme 6y ago
  Yeah I’m kicking myself over it. I knew enough to withdraw my money from the market on the 24th (took the decision the 22nd on a weekend). But I literally forgot about puts. I was under the impression you had to be an accredited investor. I was thinking about withdrawing on the 20th/21st of feb, when spread happened in Korea and Italy locked down some northern towns. Puts were still very cheap then.
  - TheCowboy 6y ago
    I try not to beat myself over things like this but it's good to explore why I didn't make a decision and absorb any lessons.
    - graeme 6y ago
      Yeah I did the latter. Now I know how the relevant instruments work if another such opportunity arises.

NateEag 6y ago

Prediction markets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Stock markets and futures exchanges can be reasonably modeled as placing bets, too.

starpilot 6y ago
I'm aware of them. None of them let you bet (for money) on the number of COVID-19 cases with a % likelihood like OP describes.
- SilasX 6y ago
  True story: Intrade let you bet on the swine flu count, as reported in major media sources, and I bet that there would be 50,000 cases in the US by the end of June 2009. Then they changed it to "CDC official count" before the bet resolved, and the CDC decided to stop updating it, so I lost the bet even though there were 50k cases by the terms of the original bet.
  - breischl 6y ago
    Were they allowed to do that under the terms of the contract or something like that? If not, it sounds like fraud. If so, it sounds like a way to never make any significant payouts...
    - SilasX 6y ago
      Not like I could sue, since it was hosted in Ireland :-( And in effect they could do whatever they wanted.
- TheCowboy 6y ago
  I still play on GJOpen if not only because the variety of topics is greater but I also like some of the players there and what they have to say. Brier score approaches also feel more rigorous.