4 ms·
What percentage of immunity can we expect to see a slowdown in the spread of the disease? While we may need 60% or more to achieve full herd immunity surely so
by fiftyfifty 6y ago
What percentage of immunity can we expect to see a slowdown in the spread of the disease? While we may need 60% or more to achieve full herd immunity surely somewhere lower than that we can expect to see a noticeable reduction in the spread?
- ignoramous 6y ago> ...noticeable reduction in the spread? I believe the SIR model [0] answers those questions. 3blue1brown's video on the topic is super digestible and informative [1]. In short, the discovery of a prophylactic if not a therapeutic treatment are our best immediate bets, absent which, quarantines and lockdowns will have to persist to curb the spread of a disease as infectious as covid-19 whilst we patiently wait for an effective vaccine against it [2]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SIR_model https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidem... [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_efficacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_efficacy