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How do you square this with 0.14% of all of NYC and 0.25% of all of Bergamo county being dead from confirmed Coronavirus? Surely this puts a strong lower limit
by shalmanese 7y ago
How do you square this with 0.14% of all of NYC and 0.25% of all of Bergamo county being dead from confirmed Coronavirus? Surely this puts a strong lower limit on IFR.
Deaths in both places can only increase and deaths will inevitably be retroactively assigned a Coronavirus cause.
- grandmczeb 7y agoA large percentage of the population in NYC and Italy have been probably already been infected -- for NYC specifically, I don't think its too implausible to imagine 20-30%. That would give an IFR of ~0.6% which is in line with a lot of other estimates. An IFR of <0.3% seems unlikely though.
- shalmanese 7y agoThat gives a current IFR of 0.6%. Most cases haven't resolved yet and South Korea is showing that the death rate inches up over time as deaths take much longer to resolve than recoveries.