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When I read this kind of thing I am happy we live in a society that allows the free discussion of information. It is no exaggeration to say this kind of honest

When I read this kind of thing I am happy we live in a society that allows the free discussion of information. It is no exaggeration to say this kind of honest description of events by a senior health official could have lead to imprisonment or worse in many historical and some modern contexts. Given how many people are currently unemployed - how is it that we can fail to ramp up our own ability to produce this needed equipment? There is no shortage of labor. Forget about the failures to prepare in January, February and March - what are we doing right now to prepare for the next 6 months? I'm looking around for a leader who has that vision. Governors are blaming the federal government. The federal government is blaming China and the WHO. Who is organizing the effort to fill the gaps?

twblalock 7y ago
> Who is organizing the effort to fill the gaps? Who is left, between the federal and state governments, except private companies? Some of them are doing things to acquire or manufacture PPE but it's a piecemeal effort. Apple and Tesla come to mind as companies not traditionally in the medical space who are trying to help. The only way this will work on a nationwide scale is if the federal government coordinates it. Leaving it to the states is problematic because some states won't try to do it, and some can't afford to do it without federal money even if they wanted to. That's only going to get worse as unemployment claims use up all the money the states have left.
- reggieband 7y ago
  > The only way this will work on a nationwide scale is if the federal government coordinates it. Your comment made me think of a wild and impractical idea. Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, Etsy and others unlocked a gig economy in specific industries. Is there any possibility to do the same with PPE?
  - ardy42 7y ago
    > Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, Etsy and others unlocked a gig economy in specific industries. Is there any possibility to do the same with PPE? Beyond volunteer sewing efforts that are already happening and do not produce medical-grade PPE, the answer is no.
voodooranger 7y ago
Excellent point. What is 3M for example — an American company — doing? Are they attempting to ramp up production in the US or have they determined that it’s not feasible because PPE prices are are not permitted to rise because of anti gouging laws?
- Thriptic 7y ago
  According to anecdata from a friend of mine at 3M, they are running manufacturing 24 hours / day and are expanding. Apparently one of the problems was that when China was infected, 3M depleted a lot of their existing mask stock selling to the Chinese. When the virus came to the US, existing stocks were already somewhat depleted.
- tinalumfoil 7y ago
  The issue is a lot of the factories that make these products are in China. The US has foresight to ensure military supply lines aren't dependent on China, but that foresight didnt extend to medical equipment. There simply isnt the capacity enough masks in the US.
  - baybal2 7y ago
    > The US has foresight to ensure military supply lines aren't dependent on China I have to surprise you. A surprising amount of US defence hardware is double digit Chinese BOM.
- ardy42 7y ago
  The problem isn't anti-gouging laws, it's that medical customers aren't willing to commit to long-term contracts to justify the investment to increase production. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2020/04/03/if-you-imagine-that-a-local-business-making-surgical-face-masks-is-working-247-guess-again/ https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2020/04/03/if-you-i... > ...during an outbreak like this, everybody wants to be [an American mask/respirator maker's] customer. But as soon as an outbreak subsides, his customers dump him and run back to China. The reason? His masks may cost a dime each, but a made-in-China mask might go for two cents. > “Last time he geared up and went three shifts a day working his tail off,” the mayor recalled. “As soon as the issue died, he didn’t have any sales. He had to pay unemployment for all these people, and he had to gear down.” Also, why would you think anti-gouging laws would be the problem? The only thing raising prices would do is send PPE towards people with money who may or may not have actual need. No one sensible is going to ramp up extra capacity or create stockpiles of perishable goods with the idea that they'd be able to gouge during infrequent, unpredictable crises. The only people that price gouging helps are the parasitic middlemen who make a profit engaging in it, and the fools with money to burn who can't demonstrate priority need.
dboreham 7y ago
The governor I watched talk about this (NY) said something completely different: he said if you know how to make PPE, call me. If need funding to spin up manufacturing, I'll get it for you. And so on. This was a week or two ago.
- baybal2 7y ago
  This is a level above doing blame game, for sure, but a governor of a state should always be the No.1 emergency responder. They should not be just asking for help, they should lead, and command the emergency respone. With the state of emergency declared, they have full authority to order businesses to make supplies, or requisition manufacturing facilities for that.
  - bluGill 7y ago
    It wouldn't even be hard, many businesses would love to help, they just need to be labeled essential (so their people can show up) and given reasonable plans to make something given their resources. In short what the world needs is plans on how to make n95 mask making machines. There are plenty of manufacturers who can take those plans and build the machines in a few weeks (I'm guessing on time line but it seems reasonable) from there we can make as many masks as we have raw materials for.
    - baybal2 7y ago
      It's impossible to make those non-woven fabric machines in just few week. But it's very much possible to expand NWF production at existing facilities many-times-fold. But even that is not really needed. There are factories in China with piles of NWF that has nowhere to go because of the export ban. So, it's really a non-issue... if global community could've functioned even on the level how it did 20 years ago. The world community is no more... and the global cooperation went away along with it The West had 20 years to do something about this, but it didn't.
      - rckoepke 7y ago
CoronaBasedGod 7y ago
I have the engineering abilities to design equipment, but I'm not willing to risk my savings to get government approval. Instead I'm offering to sell cotton masks I sew. I already have a sewing machine and fabric, basically free. But if I create my own n95 mask, I need either suppliers or tooling and government approval. The latter is expensive and risky. Who knows if production in those facilities or automotive will change to be making healthcare equipment. 8 year Design Engineer here. The 963$/week I'm getting in unemployment is nice too.
rhino369 7y ago
>Given how many people are currently unemployed - how is it that we can fail to ramp up our own ability to produce this needed equipment? There is no shortage of labor. Labor isn't the limiting factor. You need machines, raw materials, supply chains. There isn't an AWS for N95 mask manufacturing.
- giggles_giggles 7y ago
  Hol' up, are you saying that there's a reason besides economics that the government might introduce protectionist trade measures to keep some critical manufacturing domestic for use during an emergency when you cannot trust your supply chains which come from hostile -- or even friendly -- nations? It's funny because this was a U.S. conservative talking point going back as long as I can remember (for me that's the mid/late 90s). There's even an episode of The Office (U.S.) where this point of view is lampooned (Oscar to Michael: "Wouldn't you say that the services sector is much more relevant than manufacturing?"). Never thought I'd see it expressed openly on HN, and with upvotes!
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- reggieband 7y ago
  I think you are underestimating the productive potential of 4 million people. Machines can be built, raw materials can be gathered and supply chains can be organized. The alternative is to sit at home doing nothing until the equipment we need comes from China, which is more-or-less what our current leaders are recommending.
  - adrianN 7y ago
    That is of course true, but doing all those things takes a lot of time. Building machines that make the raw materials for N95 masks takes weeks for the companies that already know how to do it. I imagine it is a much slower process if you first need to train people.
ardy42 7y ago
> Given how many people are currently unemployed - how is it that we can fail to ramp up our own ability to produce this needed equipment? There is no shortage of labor. Labor isn't the only limiting factor: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/16/814929294/covid-19-has-caused-a-shortage-of-face-masks-but-theyre-surprisingly-hard-to-mak https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/16/8149292...: > COVID-19 Has Caused A Shortage Of Face Masks. But They're Surprisingly Hard To Make > ... > Both the masks made for medical personnel and for consumer purchase require a once-obscure material called melt-blown fabric. It's an extremely fine mesh of synthetic polymer fibers that forms the critical inner filtration layer of a mask, allowing the wearer to breath while reducing the inflow of possible infectious particles... > And there's now a global shortage of melt-blown fabric due to the increased demand for masks — and the difficulty in producing this material.
- reggieband 7y ago
  I think one of the hallmarks of great leadership is to inspire people to see beyond barriers. Melt-blown fabric is not likely to be the only or even the biggest hurdle. Maybe it will take months/years to go from zero to production quantity/quality no matter how hard we try or how well we organize. And maybe by the time that production capacity is active the market will be flooded by PPE from China (let's hope). Yet I would still rather be over-prepared and with people actively productive compared to behind the ball with people sat at home. Maybe I'm just tired of the government telling us to be patient while we continue to hear reports like this. I want someone to tell us how to be proactive.
  - vmarsy 7y ago
    Hospitals are looking themselves how to fill the gap while supply of PPE comes back. Here's a an example of a tutorial for masks made using readily available tools: https://enmed.tamu.edu/diymasks/ https://enmed.tamu.edu/diymasks/ There are many other tutorials online from various sources which use different machines (sewing machine, 3d printers, etc), so people can improvise based on what they have. The PDF shows detailed price breakdown for materials of ~$5/mask and estimates 10 minutes per mask, since of course it's diy, there's a lot of warning labels, but it's better than nothing. If people can produce ~40 masks per day using basic tools, this can scale based on the availability of raw materials and tools.

twblalock 7y ago

> Who is organizing the effort to fill the gaps? Who is left, between the federal and state governments, except private companies? Some of them are doing things to acquire or manufacture PPE but it's a piecemeal effort. Apple and Tesla come to mind as companies not traditionally in the medical space who are trying to help. The only way this will work on a nationwide scale is if the federal government coordinates it. Leaving it to the states is problematic because some states won't try to do it, and some can't afford to do it without federal money even if they wanted to. That's only going to get worse as unemployment claims use up all the money the states have left.

reggieband 7y ago
> The only way this will work on a nationwide scale is if the federal government coordinates it. Your comment made me think of a wild and impractical idea. Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, Etsy and others unlocked a gig economy in specific industries. Is there any possibility to do the same with PPE?
- ardy42 7y ago
  > Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, Etsy and others unlocked a gig economy in specific industries. Is there any possibility to do the same with PPE? Beyond volunteer sewing efforts that are already happening and do not produce medical-grade PPE, the answer is no.

voodooranger 7y ago

Excellent point. What is 3M for example — an American company — doing? Are they attempting to ramp up production in the US or have they determined that it’s not feasible because PPE prices are are not permitted to rise because of anti gouging laws?

Thriptic 7y ago
According to anecdata from a friend of mine at 3M, they are running manufacturing 24 hours / day and are expanding. Apparently one of the problems was that when China was infected, 3M depleted a lot of their existing mask stock selling to the Chinese. When the virus came to the US, existing stocks were already somewhat depleted.
tinalumfoil 7y ago
The issue is a lot of the factories that make these products are in China. The US has foresight to ensure military supply lines aren't dependent on China, but that foresight didnt extend to medical equipment. There simply isnt the capacity enough masks in the US.
- baybal2 7y ago
  > The US has foresight to ensure military supply lines aren't dependent on China I have to surprise you. A surprising amount of US defence hardware is double digit Chinese BOM.
ardy42 7y ago
The problem isn't anti-gouging laws, it's that medical customers aren't willing to commit to long-term contracts to justify the investment to increase production. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2020/04/03/if-you-imagine-that-a-local-business-making-surgical-face-masks-is-working-247-guess-again/ https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2020/04/03/if-you-i... > ...during an outbreak like this, everybody wants to be [an American mask/respirator maker's] customer. But as soon as an outbreak subsides, his customers dump him and run back to China. The reason? His masks may cost a dime each, but a made-in-China mask might go for two cents. > “Last time he geared up and went three shifts a day working his tail off,” the mayor recalled. “As soon as the issue died, he didn’t have any sales. He had to pay unemployment for all these people, and he had to gear down.” Also, why would you think anti-gouging laws would be the problem? The only thing raising prices would do is send PPE towards people with money who may or may not have actual need. No one sensible is going to ramp up extra capacity or create stockpiles of perishable goods with the idea that they'd be able to gouge during infrequent, unpredictable crises. The only people that price gouging helps are the parasitic middlemen who make a profit engaging in it, and the fools with money to burn who can't demonstrate priority need.

dboreham 7y ago

The governor I watched talk about this (NY) said something completely different: he said if you know how to make PPE, call me. If need funding to spin up manufacturing, I'll get it for you. And so on. This was a week or two ago.

baybal2 7y ago
This is a level above doing blame game, for sure, but a governor of a state should always be the No.1 emergency responder. They should not be just asking for help, they should lead, and command the emergency respone. With the state of emergency declared, they have full authority to order businesses to make supplies, or requisition manufacturing facilities for that.
- bluGill 7y ago
  It wouldn't even be hard, many businesses would love to help, they just need to be labeled essential (so their people can show up) and given reasonable plans to make something given their resources. In short what the world needs is plans on how to make n95 mask making machines. There are plenty of manufacturers who can take those plans and build the machines in a few weeks (I'm guessing on time line but it seems reasonable) from there we can make as many masks as we have raw materials for.
  - baybal2 7y ago
    It's impossible to make those non-woven fabric machines in just few week. But it's very much possible to expand NWF production at existing facilities many-times-fold. But even that is not really needed. There are factories in China with piles of NWF that has nowhere to go because of the export ban. So, it's really a non-issue... if global community could've functioned even on the level how it did 20 years ago. The world community is no more... and the global cooperation went away along with it The West had 20 years to do something about this, but it didn't.
    - rckoepke 7y ago

CoronaBasedGod 7y ago

I have the engineering abilities to design equipment, but I'm not willing to risk my savings to get government approval. Instead I'm offering to sell cotton masks I sew. I already have a sewing machine and fabric, basically free. But if I create my own n95 mask, I need either suppliers or tooling and government approval. The latter is expensive and risky. Who knows if production in those facilities or automotive will change to be making healthcare equipment. 8 year Design Engineer here. The 963$/week I'm getting in unemployment is nice too.

rhino369 7y ago

giggles_giggles 7y ago
Hol' up, are you saying that there's a reason besides economics that the government might introduce protectionist trade measures to keep some critical manufacturing domestic for use during an emergency when you cannot trust your supply chains which come from hostile -- or even friendly -- nations? It's funny because this was a U.S. conservative talking point going back as long as I can remember (for me that's the mid/late 90s). There's even an episode of The Office (U.S.) where this point of view is lampooned (Oscar to Michael: "Wouldn't you say that the services sector is much more relevant than manufacturing?"). Never thought I'd see it expressed openly on HN, and with upvotes!
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
reggieband 7y ago
I think you are underestimating the productive potential of 4 million people. Machines can be built, raw materials can be gathered and supply chains can be organized. The alternative is to sit at home doing nothing until the equipment we need comes from China, which is more-or-less what our current leaders are recommending.
- adrianN 7y ago
  That is of course true, but doing all those things takes a lot of time. Building machines that make the raw materials for N95 masks takes weeks for the companies that already know how to do it. I imagine it is a much slower process if you first need to train people.

ardy42 7y ago

> Given how many people are currently unemployed - how is it that we can fail to ramp up our own ability to produce this needed equipment? There is no shortage of labor. Labor isn't the only limiting factor: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/16/814929294/covid-19-has-caused-a-shortage-of-face-masks-but-theyre-surprisingly-hard-to-mak https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/16/8149292...: > COVID-19 Has Caused A Shortage Of Face Masks. But They're Surprisingly Hard To Make > ... > Both the masks made for medical personnel and for consumer purchase require a once-obscure material called melt-blown fabric. It's an extremely fine mesh of synthetic polymer fibers that forms the critical inner filtration layer of a mask, allowing the wearer to breath while reducing the inflow of possible infectious particles... > And there's now a global shortage of melt-blown fabric due to the increased demand for masks — and the difficulty in producing this material.

reggieband 7y ago
I think one of the hallmarks of great leadership is to inspire people to see beyond barriers. Melt-blown fabric is not likely to be the only or even the biggest hurdle. Maybe it will take months/years to go from zero to production quantity/quality no matter how hard we try or how well we organize. And maybe by the time that production capacity is active the market will be flooded by PPE from China (let's hope). Yet I would still rather be over-prepared and with people actively productive compared to behind the ball with people sat at home. Maybe I'm just tired of the government telling us to be patient while we continue to hear reports like this. I want someone to tell us how to be proactive.
- vmarsy 7y ago
  Hospitals are looking themselves how to fill the gap while supply of PPE comes back. Here's a an example of a tutorial for masks made using readily available tools: https://enmed.tamu.edu/diymasks/ https://enmed.tamu.edu/diymasks/ There are many other tutorials online from various sources which use different machines (sewing machine, 3d printers, etc), so people can improvise based on what they have. The PDF shows detailed price breakdown for materials of ~$5/mask and estimates 10 minutes per mask, since of course it's diy, there's a lot of warning labels, but it's better than nothing. If people can produce ~40 masks per day using basic tools, this can scale based on the availability of raw materials and tools.