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How do you square that with the fact that there is no outbreak in any overseas Chinese community? Not Taiwan or Hongkong or Macau, nor in the epicenter of Italy
by fspeech 7y ago
How do you square that with the fact that there is no outbreak in any overseas Chinese community? Not Taiwan or Hongkong or Macau, nor in the epicenter of Italy (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-chinese/from-zero-to-hero-italys-chinese-help-beat-coronavirus-idUSKBN21I3I8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-...), nor San Francisco Chinatown (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/san-francisco-coronavirus-chinese-hospital.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/san-francisco-coronavi...)? All of these communities have far more ties to mainland China.
- guscost 7y agoIt could have already passed through all of those communities basically unnoticed, and/or confused with other ILIs. There's no way to rule out that possibility, and when you consider how rare cardiovascular diseases (the most common comorbidity) are in those communities, you have to conclude that it's not vanishingly unlikely: https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/omh/browse.aspx?lvl=4&lvlid=49 https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/omh/browse.aspx?lvl=4&lvlid=4... Obviously mitigation efforts still play some part in limiting the spread, but I would not bet that all of those communities were able to suppress such a contagious disease before a big chunk of the population was exposed to it.
- fspeech 7y agoMaybe Chinese emigrants in Italy are young so they didn't notice the wave. But Taiwan/Hongkong/Macau? They are testing and tracing. When their recent travelers to Europe and America came back, a lot of them were infected and caused a spike in cases. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/09/world/asia/coronavirus-hong-kong-singapore-taiwan.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/09/world/asia/co...