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There are now multiple sources of evidence pointing to a very low true infection fatality rate, as low as 0.1% in some regions. Iceland has been testing a semi-

There are now multiple sources of evidence pointing to a very low true infection fatality rate, as low as 0.1% in some regions. Iceland has been testing a semi-random sample using PCR since early in the epidemic, and there have been several small antibody surveys in “hot spots” showing infection rates over 15%. You can also use CDC surveillance of flu-like illnesses to estimate the total number of infected nationwide; this morning I posted an analysis of this data estimating only 1 in 40 cases were detected in March, consistent with the Stanford results: https://fivetran.com/blog/covid-19-count https://fivetran.com/blog/covid-19-count

projektfu 6y ago
It may have a low overall fatality rate, yet it seems to have a high rate of hospitalization in clinical cases.
- BearOso 6y ago
  And it’s more contagious than the flu, so even if the fatality rate is identical, more people are at risk.
- grandmczeb 6y ago
  > it seems to have a high rate of hospitalization in clinical cases. The raw hospitalization rate is inflated because both treatment and testing are mostly limited to very severe cases in places where there's a lot of confirmed cases (e.g. NYC.)
  - projektfu 6y ago
    Still, comparing it to influenza... we dont see this many severe cases typically.
    - grandmczeb 6y ago
      Its pretty obvious this is worse than the flu. I don't think anyone is really disputing that at this point.
usaar333 6y ago
CDC flu surveillance data suffers from even more selection bias than this study. It's basically useless. Iceland PCR data is reliable but it is suggestive of an IFR of more like 0.3%. Except Iceland also managed to successfully isolate their elderly so if you correct for that, we're back at 0.7% or so for the general population.
shalmanese 6y ago
How do you square this with 0.14% of all of NYC and 0.25% of all of Bergamo county being dead from confirmed Coronavirus? Surely this puts a strong lower limit on IFR. Deaths in both places can only increase and deaths will inevitably be retroactively assigned a Coronavirus cause.
- grandmczeb 6y ago
  A large percentage of the population in NYC and Italy have been probably already been infected -- for NYC specifically, I don't think its too implausible to imagine 20-30%. That would give an IFR of ~0.6% which is in line with a lot of other estimates. An IFR of <0.3% seems unlikely though.
  - shalmanese 6y ago
    That gives a current IFR of 0.6%. Most cases haven't resolved yet and South Korea is showing that the death rate inches up over time as deaths take much longer to resolve than recoveries.

projektfu 6y ago

It may have a low overall fatality rate, yet it seems to have a high rate of hospitalization in clinical cases.

BearOso 6y ago
And it’s more contagious than the flu, so even if the fatality rate is identical, more people are at risk.
grandmczeb 6y ago
> it seems to have a high rate of hospitalization in clinical cases. The raw hospitalization rate is inflated because both treatment and testing are mostly limited to very severe cases in places where there's a lot of confirmed cases (e.g. NYC.)
- projektfu 6y ago
  Still, comparing it to influenza... we dont see this many severe cases typically.
  - grandmczeb 6y ago
    Its pretty obvious this is worse than the flu. I don't think anyone is really disputing that at this point.

usaar333 6y ago

CDC flu surveillance data suffers from even more selection bias than this study. It's basically useless. Iceland PCR data is reliable but it is suggestive of an IFR of more like 0.3%. Except Iceland also managed to successfully isolate their elderly so if you correct for that, we're back at 0.7% or so for the general population.

shalmanese 6y ago

How do you square this with 0.14% of all of NYC and 0.25% of all of Bergamo county being dead from confirmed Coronavirus? Surely this puts a strong lower limit on IFR. Deaths in both places can only increase and deaths will inevitably be retroactively assigned a Coronavirus cause.

grandmczeb 6y ago
A large percentage of the population in NYC and Italy have been probably already been infected -- for NYC specifically, I don't think its too implausible to imagine 20-30%. That would give an IFR of ~0.6% which is in line with a lot of other estimates. An IFR of <0.3% seems unlikely though.
- shalmanese 6y ago
  That gives a current IFR of 0.6%. Most cases haven't resolved yet and South Korea is showing that the death rate inches up over time as deaths take much longer to resolve than recoveries.