4 ms·

Based on the difference between CA and NY, I'd be willing to bet that it got here earlier, maybe in December.

by pwned1 7y ago

greedo 7y ago
You would have seen more reports in hospitals of interstitial pneumonia, as well as a higher YoY death rate during January.
- hedora 7y ago
  The CDC is reporting an abnormally high pneumonia death rate in January, and it can’t be explained by confirmed flu cases: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6 Look carefully at the black and red graph after the phrase “mortality surveillance data”.
  - greedo 7y ago
    The graph and text clearly state it refers to pneumonia and influenza, if you refer to the legend where it says Percent P&I. The P&I for the first 8 weeks of the year is clearly within normal ranges. It spikes from baseline in the first week of March continuing on to the present day. If you look at the first set of graphs, you'll see a spike around the same time for influenza tests. I don't know how fast pneumonia occurs in people weakened by influenza, but I would expect some delay. I think the spike in both influenza and in death due to influenza and pneumonia is probably due to testing. If you presented with influenza like symptoms in March, you were definitely given a flu test to rule out influenza.
- autokad 7y ago
  it sounds like there was. Look at the 2019/20 flu season from the cdc. it was about 3rd place in last 10 years despite the country basically shutting down. Anecdotally, I remember in December / January reading about this being the worst flu season in years (time). it would have been interesting to know if the flu was effecting the normal cohort or ignoring children. I myself got the 2nd worst sick I have ever been at the end of November visiting San Francisco. (really bad dry cough, fever). It was strange in the sense that I had mild symptoms for a bout two weeks and then 'took my breath away'. went to the hospital, no pneumonia, but low oxygen levels. my friends kid got the same thing, mild cough for a few days and fine. didn't really recover until mid January. Was it covid19? probably not, was probably the flu. That doesn't discount the possibility this was running around the globe even in December. I don't stick my head in the sand and wait for people to tell me so to consider that's at least a very possible scenario. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e... https://time.com/5758953/flu-season-2019-2020/ https://time.com/5758953/flu-season-2019-2020/
slg 7y ago
California has 2X the population of New York. NY has more than 17X the number of deaths and while the daily deaths rate there is slowing it still far outpaces CA's daily rate. I don't know how you can look at those numbers and conclude the disease was spreading unchecked in California for multiple months.
- pwned1 7y ago
  Maybe a milder form of it came directly from Wuhan to CA, spreading like a bad flu. And then the version in NY came from Wuhan to Europe to NY, mutating along the way, and making it more deadly.
  - slg 7y ago
    I'm not sure why we should believe the strain that originated in Wuhan was milder, but lets go with this theory for a minute. How does the nursing home in Washington fit into that picture? It was one of the earliest known hotspots in the US and it was extremely deadly. Was it the mild strain that you think might have already been spreading through California or the severe strain from Europe that spread to Washington first before New York? If it was the former, why didn't we see similar situations in California among vulnerable populations?
    - MikeAmelung 7y ago
      Not that I necessarily agree with the theory, an influenza outbreak in a nursing home could be extremely deadly. This is why they are nearly 100% vaccinated. And they are (or are supposed to be) quick to quarantine and lockdown if it seems like flu has been detected. Which is to say that even a "mild" strain would certainly pose a larger risk to a nursing home.
      - slg 7y ago
        I realize that, but it skips over the last question in my previous post. Why didn't we see a similar situation in any California nursing homes if this mild strain was spreading unchecked for months in a population with zero immunity?
mifreewil 7y ago
I think the more likely explanation is that NY simply is a lot more dense and less reliant on cars vs the less dense and more reliant on cars California.
- guscost 7y ago
  Especially if the infectious dose also affects severity, as is the case with other respiratory illnesses: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25416753 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25416753 Basically, if you're in a suburban area and pick up a few viral particles from one coffee-shop counter, it's possible that you're not in nearly as much danger as someone touching handrails and inhaling subway air all day long.

Based on the difference between CA and NY, I'd be willing to bet that it got here earlier, maybe in December.

by pwned1 7y ago

Based on the difference between CA and NY, I'd be willing to bet that it got here earlier, maybe in December.

You would have seen more reports in hospitals of interstitial pneumonia, as well as a higher YoY death rate during January.

hedora 7y ago
The CDC is reporting an abnormally high pneumonia death rate in January, and it can’t be explained by confirmed flu cases: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6 Look carefully at the black and red graph after the phrase “mortality surveillance data”.
- greedo 7y ago
  The graph and text clearly state it refers to pneumonia and influenza, if you refer to the legend where it says Percent P&I. The P&I for the first 8 weeks of the year is clearly within normal ranges. It spikes from baseline in the first week of March continuing on to the present day. If you look at the first set of graphs, you'll see a spike around the same time for influenza tests. I don't know how fast pneumonia occurs in people weakened by influenza, but I would expect some delay. I think the spike in both influenza and in death due to influenza and pneumonia is probably due to testing. If you presented with influenza like symptoms in March, you were definitely given a flu test to rule out influenza.
autokad 7y ago
it sounds like there was. Look at the 2019/20 flu season from the cdc. it was about 3rd place in last 10 years despite the country basically shutting down. Anecdotally, I remember in December / January reading about this being the worst flu season in years (time). it would have been interesting to know if the flu was effecting the normal cohort or ignoring children. I myself got the 2nd worst sick I have ever been at the end of November visiting San Francisco. (really bad dry cough, fever). It was strange in the sense that I had mild symptoms for a bout two weeks and then 'took my breath away'. went to the hospital, no pneumonia, but low oxygen levels. my friends kid got the same thing, mild cough for a few days and fine. didn't really recover until mid January. Was it covid19? probably not, was probably the flu. That doesn't discount the possibility this was running around the globe even in December. I don't stick my head in the sand and wait for people to tell me so to consider that's at least a very possible scenario. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e... https://time.com/5758953/flu-season-2019-2020/ https://time.com/5758953/flu-season-2019-2020/

slg 7y ago

California has 2X the population of New York. NY has more than 17X the number of deaths and while the daily deaths rate there is slowing it still far outpaces CA's daily rate. I don't know how you can look at those numbers and conclude the disease was spreading unchecked in California for multiple months.

pwned1 7y ago
Maybe a milder form of it came directly from Wuhan to CA, spreading like a bad flu. And then the version in NY came from Wuhan to Europe to NY, mutating along the way, and making it more deadly.
- slg 7y ago
  I'm not sure why we should believe the strain that originated in Wuhan was milder, but lets go with this theory for a minute. How does the nursing home in Washington fit into that picture? It was one of the earliest known hotspots in the US and it was extremely deadly. Was it the mild strain that you think might have already been spreading through California or the severe strain from Europe that spread to Washington first before New York? If it was the former, why didn't we see similar situations in California among vulnerable populations?
  - MikeAmelung 7y ago
    Not that I necessarily agree with the theory, an influenza outbreak in a nursing home could be extremely deadly. This is why they are nearly 100% vaccinated. And they are (or are supposed to be) quick to quarantine and lockdown if it seems like flu has been detected. Which is to say that even a "mild" strain would certainly pose a larger risk to a nursing home.
    - slg 7y ago
      I realize that, but it skips over the last question in my previous post. Why didn't we see a similar situation in any California nursing homes if this mild strain was spreading unchecked for months in a population with zero immunity?

mifreewil 7y ago

I think the more likely explanation is that NY simply is a lot more dense and less reliant on cars vs the less dense and more reliant on cars California.

guscost 7y ago
Especially if the infectious dose also affects severity, as is the case with other respiratory illnesses: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25416753 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25416753 Basically, if you're in a suburban area and pick up a few viral particles from one coffee-shop counter, it's possible that you're not in nearly as much danger as someone touching handrails and inhaling subway air all day long.