> 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the normal flu season spike in 2016 the current number depends on lockdow

> 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the normal flu season spike in 2016 the current number depends on lockdown measures. We didn't have lockdowns in 2016, and it is likely if we didn't have them now we'd be much worse. You can look at the graph for Sweden which decided to only apply mild measures for a comparison which shows this is much worse than the 16/17 flu. The rest of the reasoning is still correct, and I have heard it pointed out before, though I believe you meant warmer _winter_ :)