3 ms·
Paper is short so worth reading, but some key points: * They had an outbreak in this village as a result of a festival event in mid-February * A random sample
by gwd 7y ago
Paper is short so worth reading, but some key points:
* They had an outbreak in this village as a result of a festival event in mid-February
* A random sample of 1000 from a population of 12,000 were sampled afterwards
* The immunity within the population as a whole was at about 15%.
* The fatality rate was 0.37%
It's got this statement:
> By adhering to strict hygiene measures it is to be expected that the virus concentration of an infected individual can be reduced to the point that the illness manifests more mildly, with simultaneous development of an immunity.
But it seems like the that statement is just an assertion, not something specifically supported by the data they gathered in this study, because it goes on to say:
> These
favourable conditions are not present in a superspreading event (e.g. Karneval
meeting, apres-ski bar in Ischgl, Austria).
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- tinus_hn 7y agoThese statements are so odd they look like a translation error. Is there a German version of this paper?
- luspr 7y agoYes. Same url just drop the "_en": https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwis...
- tinus_hn 7y agoThe statements are similar so they are stating this community went through the worst case scenario and ended up with 0,37% fatality.
- dr_zoidberg 7y agoIf that mortaility rate is common, it would mean there are ~10x (or more) infected in the world... This sort-of coincides with the large asymptomatic reports. So what do we do from here on? Such numbers would surely raise the famous r0 infection rate, and it means this is far more contagious than reported/believed.
- raphaelj 7y agor0 can stay the same, it can just means that the epidemic "took off" earlier than what our tests show.
- gwd 7y agoI didn't notice at first, but FWIW it looks like the kinds of grammar constructions that my colleagues in Germany tend to use when writing.
- mannykannot 7y agoThe issue for me (and apparently also gwd) is that this does not seem to be a conclusion that could be made from the sort of evidence collected from this study, and I cannot imagine how that would result from a translation error (unless a whole sentence or more was simply dropped in translation?)
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]