2 ms·

"It'll be over by Christmas" was a popular prediction when World War I started (some even thought it would be over in days) that was stunningly wrong. While I

"It'll be over by Christmas" was a popular prediction when World War I started (some even thought it would be over in days) that was stunningly wrong. While I thought this was about COVID-19 before clicking, I assumed it would use WWI as an example of how experts and those in charge could get predictions of how long something would take really, really wrong, and was kind of disappointed to not see any mention of that in there. https://www.historynet.com/over-by-christmas.htm https://www.historynet.com/over-by-christmas.htm

watwut 7y ago
Through, at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted longer war. They did not predicted how exactly long and how exactly bad it will be, but they knew it will be long and will not be over by Christmas. (Source: I got this from Pandora’s Box: A History of the First World War book which seems to be praised by historians) "Experts and those in charge" and "public journalists and propaganda" are two distinct categories of people.
- gullyfur 7y ago
  > at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted longer war Hmm, perhaps this was an unpopular opinion, because the entire German military strategy depended on an extraordinarily fast decisive victory in France [1]. Of course, there were contingencies based on whether Russia was allied with France, or netural. Once the Schlieffen Plan fell apart, then the Germans knew it would be a long two-front war, but they didn't seem to suspect that in the first several weeks, from what I've read Though I'll have to check out the book you mentioned, Pandora's Box. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan
- cableshaft 7y ago
  I'm sure you're right that there were some that predicted the war would take longer, and I'm no WWI scholar. I had difficulty hunting down exactly who thought it would be over quickly, although from what I remember from watching/reading about the war (for example I know it was talked about in at least one video of The Great War Youtube series), there were military and political leaders (non-German) that did seem to think they could end the war quickly.

watwut 7y ago

Through, at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted longer war. They did not predicted how exactly long and how exactly bad it will be, but they knew it will be long and will not be over by Christmas. (Source: I got this from Pandora’s Box: A History of the First World War book which seems to be praised by historians) "Experts and those in charge" and "public journalists and propaganda" are two distinct categories of people.

gullyfur 7y ago
> at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted longer war Hmm, perhaps this was an unpopular opinion, because the entire German military strategy depended on an extraordinarily fast decisive victory in France [1]. Of course, there were contingencies based on whether Russia was allied with France, or netural. Once the Schlieffen Plan fell apart, then the Germans knew it would be a long two-front war, but they didn't seem to suspect that in the first several weeks, from what I've read Though I'll have to check out the book you mentioned, Pandora's Box. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan
cableshaft 7y ago
I'm sure you're right that there were some that predicted the war would take longer, and I'm no WWI scholar. I had difficulty hunting down exactly who thought it would be over quickly, although from what I remember from watching/reading about the war (for example I know it was talked about in at least one video of The Great War Youtube series), there were military and political leaders (non-German) that did seem to think they could end the war quickly.