3 ms·
> Note that the Austrian study I've read shows that current infection as detected by RT-PCR is about 3x higher than present case count, which isn't quite the sa
by the_mitsuhiko 7y ago
> Note that the Austrian study I've read shows that current infection as detected by RT-PCR is about 3x higher than present case count, which isn't quite the same thing I'm talking about with the antibody tests in Germany.
The reason Austria wasn't doing antibody tests yet is because the quality of these is not anywhere close enough to be reliable.
- mlyle 7y agoThere's good antibody tests at this point, that validate with no false positives on serum predating COVID-19. Just today, new data from Santa Clara County: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v... Stanford estimates 2.49% to 4.16% seropositivity, versus approximately 1000 reported cases as of that date-- so about 75x the actual reported cases. Of course, the way that Stanford recruited their sample means that people who were previously exposed might be more likely to report, so I think this overstates things a little, but...
- mlyle 7y agoHoly crap, check out these guys' estimate for New York: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20064519v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20064519v...
- mlyle 7y agoNow we have this to add to the pile (though I can't find an actual preprint): http://archive.is/UDrho http://archive.is/UDrho