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This is all wonderful but could someone explain why scientists, who claim they can predict when (and if) a drought would start, at the same time can't predict w
by m0zg 7y ago
This is all wonderful but could someone explain why scientists, who claim they can predict when (and if) a drought would start, at the same time can't predict when (and if) it would end? Case in point: nobody predicted that CA drought would end, yet it did.
- noelwelsh 7y agoI don't like seeing the kind of belligerent ignorance you're peddling going unchallenged. The claim, in the first paragraph of the article, is: "a megadrought as bad or worse than anything even from known prehistory is very likely in progress" Note it is "very likely". This is not the same as being certain. Note the drought has already started (quoting Science Mag: "the period from 2000 to 2018 was the driest 19-year span since the late 1500s and the second driest since 800 CE"). As for the CA drought ending, the state is currently 35% in drought (https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california). The rain that ended the drought seems like it was fairly inconsequential against the long term trend.
- m0zg 7y agoYeah, I think I'm done believing models where the authors reputation is not on the line if the model turns out to be dead wrong. You can call it "ignorance", I call it "common sense".
- Ididntdothis 7y ago“CA drought would end” In my area we are at 50% of average this year.
- aww_dang 7y agoPerhaps they simply can't make accurate predictions. The rest of their behavior can be easily explained in terms of self interest. While this may be overly cynical, I think it is worth keeping Occam's razor handy.