5 ms·

So far Covid has killed 34,000 not 10,000 in the States.

by soperj 7y ago

arcticbull 7y ago
Thanks, I grabbed the wrong column from my data. Either way that’s half the flu total over the same season. My point is that it isn’t unprecedented load, it’s just all at once — and additive.
- DanBC 7y ago
  If you're going to compare the deaths you need to count them in the same way, and you haven't done so here.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    Well it’s fair to say that neither has the government, if anyone dies in possession of COVID they’re automatically a COVID death, pretty much even if they get hit by a truck. That’s not true of the flu is it?
    - chiefalchemist 7y ago
      From what I've read the CDC has told med facilities to code any death that is even suspected to be C19 as C19. No test? Doesn't matter. Patient had other serious conditions? Doesn't matter. With broader testing limited and deaths from being inflated the IFR should be suspect.
      - chiefalchemist 7y ago
        What is it about HN and simple math? And The Truth? Down voting with no explanation is soooo lazy. Yawn
      - arcticbull 7y ago
        You are in fact correct, and you are welcome to use this CDC guidance as a reference in the future, should it come up: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-I...
    - SandB0x 7y ago
      It seems unlikely that someone would even be tested after being hit by a truck, or that a doctor would choose to list it as a cause of death.
    - jacobush 7y ago
      No, because people die every day and no tests are run if they had the virus.
      - arcticbull 7y ago
        And indeed they can be counted as COVID deaths if they had respiratory illnesses because the CDC direction is to count any suspicion of COVID or the contribution thereof as a COVID death. [1] [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-I...
    - DanBC 7y ago
      You're incorrect to say that if anyone dies with Covid-19 that they're counted as a covid-19 death. It's likely that covid-19 deaths are undercounted. Here's one example: https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-covid-19-outbreaks-in-care-homes-early-international-evidence/ https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-co... For a while the US was only counting deaths that happened in hospitals. This argument -- that we're somehow over-counting covid-19 death -- doesn't hold because we can compare excess mortality this year against the previous 5 years. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking... Spain: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1247500657386557443 https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1247500657386557443 For the UK: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/tracking-mortality-over-time/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/tracking-mortality-over-time/ > That’s not true of the flu is it? Yes, it is. The figures that count covid-19 vs flu are available, and they use the same method. They look at death certifications and then statisticians code those. There's lag in those figures which is why worldometers don 't use that data.
      - arcticbull 7y ago
        > You're incorrect to say that if anyone dies with Covid-19 that they're counted as a covid-19 death. I'm not. In some countries they absolutely do count anyone who dies while in the possession of COVID as a COVID death, for instance Italy. " Italy’s death rate might also be higher because of how fatalities are recorded. In Italy, all those who die in hospitals with Coronavirus are included in the death counts." “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three.” [1] In New York they're not just counting speculative COVID deaths of anyone with respiratory illness even if they've never tested positive [2]. "A subtler issue is what to do when the patient has other serious medical conditions. If the person suffered from chronic lung disease, then became infected with the virus and died of pneumonia, the immediate or primary cause would be pneumonia as a result of COVID-19. The lung disease would be listed as a contributing condition, said Sally S. Aiken, president of the National Association of Medical Examiners." [3] The CDC has guidance on this but it's fair to say its interpretation will vary from place to place. "COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death" -- that's pretty broad. [4] My understanding is a few folks who committed suicide and a few who died in car accidents due to head trauma were coded as COVID, but I can't find my source on that and I assume it's pretty limited. I wasn't being literal in my earlier comment, however, and nor should this paragraph be considered as changing or doubling-down on that. I assume such cases, if they do in fact exist would be few and far between. Hope that helps. I also don't think it's fair to pin 100% of excess deaths entirely on COVID. We shall see, however. [1] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-new-york-city-struggles-to-get-accurate-fatality-count-as-more-people-die-at-home.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-new-york-city-st... [3] https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid19-cause-death-certificate-pcom-20200401.html https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covi... [4] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-I...
- simonh 7y ago
  That number only includes deaths in hospital of confirmed cases, a lot of people are dying at home particularly of heart attacks induced by oxygen starvation. The data from New York looking at excess deaths compared to the same period last year indicates that the actual number of Covid-19 related deaths is probably around double that.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
erfgh 7y ago
How do you know? Those deaths were not necessarily caused by the virus, in fact some of those dead never had a positive covid test.

So far Covid has killed 34,000 not 10,000 in the States.

by soperj 7y ago

So far Covid has killed 34,000 not 10,000 in the States.

Thanks, I grabbed the wrong column from my data. Either way that’s half the flu total over the same season. My point is that it isn’t unprecedented load, it’s just all at once — and additive.

DanBC 7y ago
If you're going to compare the deaths you need to count them in the same way, and you haven't done so here.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  Well it’s fair to say that neither has the government, if anyone dies in possession of COVID they’re automatically a COVID death, pretty much even if they get hit by a truck. That’s not true of the flu is it?
  - chiefalchemist 7y ago
    From what I've read the CDC has told med facilities to code any death that is even suspected to be C19 as C19. No test? Doesn't matter. Patient had other serious conditions? Doesn't matter. With broader testing limited and deaths from being inflated the IFR should be suspect.
    - chiefalchemist 7y ago
      What is it about HN and simple math? And The Truth? Down voting with no explanation is soooo lazy. Yawn
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      You are in fact correct, and you are welcome to use this CDC guidance as a reference in the future, should it come up: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-I...
  - SandB0x 7y ago
    It seems unlikely that someone would even be tested after being hit by a truck, or that a doctor would choose to list it as a cause of death.
  - jacobush 7y ago
    No, because people die every day and no tests are run if they had the virus.
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      And indeed they can be counted as COVID deaths if they had respiratory illnesses because the CDC direction is to count any suspicion of COVID or the contribution thereof as a COVID death. [1] [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-I...
  - DanBC 7y ago
    You're incorrect to say that if anyone dies with Covid-19 that they're counted as a covid-19 death. It's likely that covid-19 deaths are undercounted. Here's one example: https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-covid-19-outbreaks-in-care-homes-early-international-evidence/ https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-co... For a while the US was only counting deaths that happened in hospitals. This argument -- that we're somehow over-counting covid-19 death -- doesn't hold because we can compare excess mortality this year against the previous 5 years. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking... Spain: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1247500657386557443 https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1247500657386557443 For the UK: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/tracking-mortality-over-time/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/tracking-mortality-over-time/ > That’s not true of the flu is it? Yes, it is. The figures that count covid-19 vs flu are available, and they use the same method. They look at death certifications and then statisticians code those. There's lag in those figures which is why worldometers don 't use that data.
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      > You're incorrect to say that if anyone dies with Covid-19 that they're counted as a covid-19 death. I'm not. In some countries they absolutely do count anyone who dies while in the possession of COVID as a COVID death, for instance Italy. " Italy’s death rate might also be higher because of how fatalities are recorded. In Italy, all those who die in hospitals with Coronavirus are included in the death counts." “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three.” [1] In New York they're not just counting speculative COVID deaths of anyone with respiratory illness even if they've never tested positive [2]. "A subtler issue is what to do when the patient has other serious medical conditions. If the person suffered from chronic lung disease, then became infected with the virus and died of pneumonia, the immediate or primary cause would be pneumonia as a result of COVID-19. The lung disease would be listed as a contributing condition, said Sally S. Aiken, president of the National Association of Medical Examiners." [3] The CDC has guidance on this but it's fair to say its interpretation will vary from place to place. "COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death" -- that's pretty broad. [4] My understanding is a few folks who committed suicide and a few who died in car accidents due to head trauma were coded as COVID, but I can't find my source on that and I assume it's pretty limited. I wasn't being literal in my earlier comment, however, and nor should this paragraph be considered as changing or doubling-down on that. I assume such cases, if they do in fact exist would be few and far between. Hope that helps. I also don't think it's fair to pin 100% of excess deaths entirely on COVID. We shall see, however. [1] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-new-york-city-struggles-to-get-accurate-fatality-count-as-more-people-die-at-home.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-new-york-city-st... [3] https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid19-cause-death-certificate-pcom-20200401.html https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covi... [4] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-I...
simonh 7y ago
That number only includes deaths in hospital of confirmed cases, a lot of people are dying at home particularly of heart attacks induced by oxygen starvation. The data from New York looking at excess deaths compared to the same period last year indicates that the actual number of Covid-19 related deaths is probably around double that.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

erfgh 7y ago

How do you know? Those deaths were not necessarily caused by the virus, in fact some of those dead never had a positive covid test.