6 ms·
IMHO, this article is intentionally misleading. The incubation period is currently estimated to be 2-14 days (mean is 5.6 days per CDC, similar per WHO). The ar
by vrtx0 6y ago
IMHO, this article is intentionally misleading. The incubation period is currently estimated to be 2-14 days (mean is 5.6 days per CDC, similar per WHO). The article doesn’t mention any dates or time frames, but does mention:
”Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19” — note how “so far” is ambiguous in that sentence. It also states, “The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete...”, which seems to indicate nowhere near enough time has elapsed to draw any sort of conclusion.
This paper [1] found that testing of all pregnancy patients in a hospital yielded 34% asymptomatic cases. That number drops to 8% “shortly after discharge”, and could be lower than 8% (Again, no timeframe is stated).
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589933320300483 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258993332...
- nostromo 6y agoJust as one data point, the captain of the ship raised alarms about the virus spreading late last month. So it’s not exactly a recent outbreak. Of course, without testing from that period it’s impossible to know.
- fragmede 6y agoThe general public may have had little to no access to testing back then, but the military certainly did. They may choose not to release numbers from back then, but the limited testing capacity existed is, IMO, quite justifiably used on people in the military. There’s plenty to criticize about the country’s response but lack of testing in the military isn’t one Of them, at least not relative to the broader (lack of) availability of testing to the wider public .
- xorfish 6y agoIf the virus spreads exponentially, you would expect most cases to be presymptomatic at any given time.
- Traster 6y agoEven an exponentially spreading virus is only in its exponential stage when the number of infected is significantly lower than the total population.
- graycat 6y agoRight, e.g., follows the (a) logistic curve.
- oldgradstudent 6y agoIn an infinitely large population.
- bonzini 6y agoAlso in a finite population, as long as the virus is spreading exponentially (which it doesn't do forever in a finite population).
- bluenose69 6y agoThis is an astute point, elegantly stated.
- oldgradstudent 6y agoVacous, but elegantly stated. In a small population like an aircraft carrier, the virus stops spreading exponentially very quickly.
- jhayward 6y agoAt roughly 10% infected the epidemic curve is in the steeply exponential portion of the curve, not the flattened end. And, as a request, perhaps you could glance at the 'principle of charity' and choose some other term than 'vacuous' to describe an argument that your response clearly did not give sufficient thought to.
- hackerSD 6y agoThey really needa handle this
- gojomo 6y agoI don't think it's intentionally misleading, but it is disappointing, how even the 'beat' reporters on this issue of intense international interest don't ask about, or highlight, the open questions, like: * were these PCR tests (of active viral RNA presence) or antibody tests (of past infection). It's probably the former, meaning 600 cases is a floor, maybe a low floor, on the total number of infected plus recovered. * the timeframes of testing, & to what extent testing-windows overlap all those who earlier reported symptoms/concern – & any followup to see who was merely pre-symptomatic. * the total impact on the crew in terms of deaths and serious cases. (Mentioning 1 recent death and 5 current hospitalizations doesn't reveal how many total hospitalizations, or serious ICU/ventilator cases.) Maybe some of this is because the Navy is holding back details (possibly for legitimate operational reasons). Maybe these wire reporters are stuck rewriting limited primary material released as someone else's press-release or transcript. But it's frustrating when the obvious next questions haven't even been asked or acknowledged.
- empath75 6y ago> This paper [1] found that testing of all pregnancy patients in a hospital yielded 34% asymptomatic cases. For a second, I thought you were saying 34% of them didn't have pregnancy symptoms.
- vrtx0 6y agoHa! If only we could invent something to make pregnancy asymptomatic... :)
- merpnderp 6y agoEven though an early WHO study showed 95% of cases will show symptoms within 7 days, they still don't know the average age of infection, so it is highly presumptuous to say they are asymptomatic.