4 ms·

Euromomo data is really interesting to me because of these two points: 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the n

Euromomo data is really interesting to me because of these two points: 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the normal flu season spike in 2016 2) this year's flue season spike was low compared to recent years. Maybe due to a warmer summer? One interpretation could be that a large number of vulnerable people escaped death from regular ILIs this European season, only to sadly succome to this pandemic.

acqq 6y ago
But all the countries did introduce various measures to slow down the spread. Otherwise nobody could claim that the numbers remained compatable.
- innomatics 6y ago
  Yes, which is wonderful. I am wondering what caused the large 2016 spike. Another interesting thing is the effect any behaviour changes are going to have on regular flu numbers. It's already looking to have a big effect in then southern hemisphere.
robocat 6y ago
When looking at a single region like Bergamo, the death toll is four times higher than normal... Absolutely nothing like a normal flu season spike. See graph in http://archive.is/AaJ76 http://archive.is/AaJ76 If you look at the euromomo information for a country it is averaged across all regions, that includes those regions that started lockdown before severe outbreak, so the spike averages down to be small. I.e. you can’t look at the country info and make conclusions about the severity of the disease.
- innomatics 6y ago
  Agree with your points although the link was blocked for me. Do you think that a very mild flu season could possibly have made this outbreak worse?
  - gpderetta 6y ago
    > Agree with your points although the link was blocked for me. Euromomo [1] has per country breakdown. While some countries are relatively unaffected (yet?), bringing the average down, some, like Italy, Uk, Spain are way beyond the 2017 peak. As pointed elsethread, possibly because of lockdown, at least in Italy, the worst has been confined to the northen regions (about one fourth of the population but more than half the confirmed cases). If allowed to spread equally everywhere, the numbers would presumably be higher. [1] https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html
  - robocat 6y ago
    > link was blocked for me That will be because you are using 1.1.1.1 for your DNS: archive.org has decided to give a bung IP to CloudFlare just because... (personally I think CloudFlare are doing the right thing here - protecting your privacy - unfortunately archive disagree. I think archive are wrong since DNS is often cached which is much the same).
riffraff 6y ago
> 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the normal flu season spike in 2016 the current number depends on lockdown measures. We didn't have lockdowns in 2016, and it is likely if we didn't have them now we'd be much worse. You can look at the graph for Sweden which decided to only apply mild measures for a comparison which shows this is much worse than the 16/17 flu. The rest of the reasoning is still correct, and I have heard it pointed out before, though I believe you meant warmer _winter_ :)

acqq 6y ago

But all the countries did introduce various measures to slow down the spread. Otherwise nobody could claim that the numbers remained compatable.

innomatics 6y ago
Yes, which is wonderful. I am wondering what caused the large 2016 spike. Another interesting thing is the effect any behaviour changes are going to have on regular flu numbers. It's already looking to have a big effect in then southern hemisphere.

robocat 6y ago

When looking at a single region like Bergamo, the death toll is four times higher than normal... Absolutely nothing like a normal flu season spike. See graph in http://archive.is/AaJ76 http://archive.is/AaJ76 If you look at the euromomo information for a country it is averaged across all regions, that includes those regions that started lockdown before severe outbreak, so the spike averages down to be small. I.e. you can’t look at the country info and make conclusions about the severity of the disease.

innomatics 6y ago
Agree with your points although the link was blocked for me. Do you think that a very mild flu season could possibly have made this outbreak worse?
- gpderetta 6y ago
  > Agree with your points although the link was blocked for me. Euromomo [1] has per country breakdown. While some countries are relatively unaffected (yet?), bringing the average down, some, like Italy, Uk, Spain are way beyond the 2017 peak. As pointed elsethread, possibly because of lockdown, at least in Italy, the worst has been confined to the northen regions (about one fourth of the population but more than half the confirmed cases). If allowed to spread equally everywhere, the numbers would presumably be higher. [1] https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html
- robocat 6y ago
  > link was blocked for me That will be because you are using 1.1.1.1 for your DNS: archive.org has decided to give a bung IP to CloudFlare just because... (personally I think CloudFlare are doing the right thing here - protecting your privacy - unfortunately archive disagree. I think archive are wrong since DNS is often cached which is much the same).

riffraff 6y ago

> 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the normal flu season spike in 2016 the current number depends on lockdown measures. We didn't have lockdowns in 2016, and it is likely if we didn't have them now we'd be much worse. You can look at the graph for Sweden which decided to only apply mild measures for a comparison which shows this is much worse than the 16/17 flu. The rest of the reasoning is still correct, and I have heard it pointed out before, though I believe you meant warmer _winter_ :)