4 ms·

Didn't NY just add 3+ thousand that weren't counted before?

Scipio_Afri 6y ago
2 days ago. "New York City raised its likely death toll from coronavirus by 3,778 people on Tuesday afternoon" https://www.wsj.com/articles/nursing-homes-remain-a-concern-as-new-yorks-coronavirus-outbreak-appears-to-plateau-11586892250 https://www.wsj.com/articles/nursing-homes-remain-a-concern-...
- chkaloon 6y ago
  maybe there was a slight delay getting them in this count
  - jMyles 6y ago
    It's not (or at least, not only) a delay, but a change in methodology of classification. Previously, all patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were counted, regardless of their cause of death. In the new methodology (in order to ensure that false negatives aren't missed), people with a pattern of symptoms are also counted, regardless of their cause of death. So, many, many more people are counted than those who died directly from complications arising from Covid-19. This is not altogether unreasonable; we want to know how many people are dying after contracting the virus. However, it is being reported as though the virus is the cause of death, when nobody doing the reporting is claiming that it is. It's a total mess. Here's the actual data sheet: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04162020-1.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...
    - sergers 6y ago
      Are they including the people who die at home? They weren't including these results previously as they were overwhelmed with testing the living, so weren't testing suspected deaths at home
      - jMyles 6y ago
        Unfortunately, it's still unclear if these new numbers reflect those cases. If that changes (or has changed without my noticing), I'd love for a reply to this comment with a link, as I am also very much wanting to know.
    - yellow_postit 6y ago
      Unfortunately I’ve seen these methodological updates getting twisted to serve various political ends - such as trying to discount the severity of the pandemic because “clearly they are overcounting”
      - thatoneuser 6y ago
        If gp said people are being counted just for showing symptoms regardless of cause of death, then that would definitely be over counting. Same if just showing symptoms without a test. It's a way to count, but it'd artificially high.
      - jMyles 6y ago
        If the number of deaths is overcounted (it might be, or it might be undercounted, or it might be overcounted in some places and undercounted in others), and the total number of cases is undercounted (it is; it's just a matter of how far we keep adjusting - we can't gain confidence until we have representative serological surveys), then the fatality rate (and thus almost certainly the mortality rate) is also overestimated. I don't know if that is "discounting the severity", but so far we've watched the CFR go from the announcement at the WHO of 3.4% to paper after paper finding below 1% (sometimes far below). I don't think that these researchers are discounting the severity, I think they're doing the best they can with limited data.

2 days ago. "New York City raised its likely death toll from coronavirus by 3,778 people on Tuesday afternoon" https://www.wsj.com/articles/nursing-homes-remain-a-concern-as-new-yorks-coronavirus-outbreak-appears-to-plateau-11586892250 https://www.wsj.com/articles/nursing-homes-remain-a-concern-...

chkaloon 6y ago
maybe there was a slight delay getting them in this count
- jMyles 6y ago
  It's not (or at least, not only) a delay, but a change in methodology of classification. Previously, all patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were counted, regardless of their cause of death. In the new methodology (in order to ensure that false negatives aren't missed), people with a pattern of symptoms are also counted, regardless of their cause of death. So, many, many more people are counted than those who died directly from complications arising from Covid-19. This is not altogether unreasonable; we want to know how many people are dying after contracting the virus. However, it is being reported as though the virus is the cause of death, when nobody doing the reporting is claiming that it is. It's a total mess. Here's the actual data sheet: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04162020-1.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...
  - sergers 6y ago
    Are they including the people who die at home? They weren't including these results previously as they were overwhelmed with testing the living, so weren't testing suspected deaths at home
    - jMyles 6y ago
      Unfortunately, it's still unclear if these new numbers reflect those cases. If that changes (or has changed without my noticing), I'd love for a reply to this comment with a link, as I am also very much wanting to know.
  - yellow_postit 6y ago
    Unfortunately I’ve seen these methodological updates getting twisted to serve various political ends - such as trying to discount the severity of the pandemic because “clearly they are overcounting”
    - thatoneuser 6y ago
      If gp said people are being counted just for showing symptoms regardless of cause of death, then that would definitely be over counting. Same if just showing symptoms without a test. It's a way to count, but it'd artificially high.
    - jMyles 6y ago
      If the number of deaths is overcounted (it might be, or it might be undercounted, or it might be overcounted in some places and undercounted in others), and the total number of cases is undercounted (it is; it's just a matter of how far we keep adjusting - we can't gain confidence until we have representative serological surveys), then the fatality rate (and thus almost certainly the mortality rate) is also overestimated. I don't know if that is "discounting the severity", but so far we've watched the CFR go from the announcement at the WHO of 3.4% to paper after paper finding below 1% (sometimes far below). I don't think that these researchers are discounting the severity, I think they're doing the best they can with limited data.