4 ms·
Hopefully, this is the peak we expected, meaning it won't keep going up by very much.
by surge 6y ago
Hopefully, this is the peak we expected, meaning it won't keep going up by very much.
- vkou 6y agoThe first peak, that is. It's likely that during the many re-openings to come, we will have other peaks.
- mlyle 6y agoI believe that if we loosen things a little soon, this will be the main one. I think it is likely that we have reduced susceptibility by 15% in New York already. And seasonal factors are swinging to be on our side. If R0 was 2.5, a virus with Rt of 1.9 (*0.85, and then a little seasonal benefit) is still scary, but it's a completely different ball game. On the other hand, if we don't experiment with reopening a little soon, we'll lose the chance to effectively use the time where weather is on our side... Emphasis on "a little". Slightly increase the set of permitted activities, designate an industry or two more as permitted, and continue to encourage mask wearing.
- jhwang5 6y agoNot sure why pessimistic views are downvoted. You are just expressing your opinion and providing a reasonable reasoning.
- mlyle 6y agoI'm not sure whether I was downvoted for being pessimistic or optimistic. Most places seem headed towards extended controls and demanding a very high standard for any reopening. I'm in the SF Bay Area which has had a fairly steady daily case count in the face of increased testing, but a declining number of COVID cases in ICU over the past 10 days. The latter is a lagging indicator, so whatever trend is there is going to continue for 10+ more days. IMO, we should slightly loosen controls, but I do not think public health will even consider that before a couple weeks have expired.
- vkou 6y agoDo we have any solid evidence for seasonality being a factor?
- mlyle 6y agoOnly moderate quality evidence, e.g. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767