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Ask HN: Why are people certain a vaccine with be found for Coronavirus?

12 points by champagnepapi 6y ago

I am pretty ignorant on the topic, so please go light. I'm asking because there are viruses such as HIV that still have no vaccine, so why are people so sure that they will find/create one for Corona anytime soon?

Kaze404 6y ago
Expanding on your question, will it even matter immediately if they do? If one was found today, how long would it take for it to be available to everyone?
- s1t5 6y ago
  The time scale is from several months to over a year. It takes a while to answer questions like - does it provide immunity, is it safe, what doses provide immunity and are safe, is one innoculation enough or does it need to be repeated, how long does the immunity last and so on. When you come across headlines about institutions which have began vaccine trials (there have been a few), that means that they are in the early stages of answering these questions. Then you have questions of production and distribution which can vary a lot depending on the type of vaccine that's produced.
sigmaprimus 6y ago
I don't think anyone is that sure there will be a vaccine but there is some promising work being done, I believe there are around 70 different vaccines being developed ATM. One that looks like it may work is from an Israeli group working on a milder corona virus that seems to use the same spiked protiens as the one killing everyone and there is hope that once infected with milder one, the bodies immune system will be able to fight off the deadlier one too. I makes me wonder, scary as it is, that is if the milder virus can make us immune would it be worth the risk releasing a live version into the population? This would greatly reduce the time required to produce and distribute a life saving vaccine and effectively make it free for everyone.
- bibabaloo 6y ago
  How do you spread it without also spreading the stronger virus?
  - sigmaprimus 6y ago
    Good point! Although, we really haven't stopped the spread of the stronger one, bending the curve is just slowing it down. Maybe the milder one could be spread faster if it were intentional?
  - Someone 6y ago
    The same way we spread polio vaccination: vaccinated personnel can safely visit people everywhere (in this case, they might have to take a few more precautions than with polio) You could also set up places where people can go to be vaccinated. Those could become hearths of infection, but precautions like those already in place for shopping would minimize that risk. Depending on the ease of administration, you could even just mail everybody a dose and let them self-apply.
jjk166 6y ago
Significant progress was made towards vaccines for other diseases closely related to Coronavirus such as SARS and MERS before funding dried up. While a SARS vaccine probably wouldn't be effective against Covid-19, there's no reason a priori to assume covid-19 has some special quality that makes it substantially more difficult to develop a vaccine for. HIV resists attempts to produce a vaccine because of its high mutation rate. There are too many strains out there for one vaccine to ever be effective and no guarantee that new strains won't pop up. Had HIV been caught and contained early on, a vaccine cocktail could probably have been developed that would be effective, but now you'd still have to worry about any HIV positive person having a strain you are not vaccinated against and thus would have to take the same protective measures. Covid-19 has been mutating slowly thus far, so there is good reason to believe that if a vaccine is developed, it would be effective. It is possible and even probable that covid will remain endemic in some regions, particularly those with poor healthcare systems, and thus new strains will have time to emerge. We thus may need new vaccines for seasonal strains, similar to the flu, but still it will be much more manageable. At the end of the day though, a vaccine may not be necessary for life to go back to something close to normal. The US already has about 1.3 million community spread pneumonia cases per year on average which has a substantially higher mortality rate and we get along just fine. The issue with Covid was that we were unprepared for it - hospitals did not have adequate amounts of supplies and equipment to handle the sudden spike in admitted patients. This leads to worse outcomes for those who catch the disease and extreme measures to limit the rate the disease spreads. If all the hospitals already had tons of extra ventilators lying around and if everyone already had face masks at home and if businesses already had adequate plans for sick leave in place then this outbreak would have been a mild inconvenience. While we obviously can't go back in time, we will be prepared moving forward.
- lurquer 6y ago
  >The issue with Covid was that we were unprepared for it - hospitals did not have adequate amounts of supplies and equipment to handle the sudden spike in admitted patients. What hospitals are you referring to? Are you aware of any patients in the US that have been denied hospital beds, ventilators, etc.? There seems to be a confusion between the anticipated crisis, and the reality on the ground. Even in NYC, I'm not aware of any hospital system needing to turn patients covid patients away.
LoSpietato 6y ago
Billionaires are very preoccupied in saving the rest 99% dreamers but before the vaccine come out show me the money. It seems a negotiation between drug dealers in dirt dark alley.
- sigmaprimus 6y ago
  I think the argument you are making has some truth to it. It is a common belief that drug companies are more interested in developing treatments than cures as there is far more profit in treatment.
2rsf 6y ago
Partial answer- because Corona is not new and some work has already began a while ago. For example this [1] Israeli company > MIGAL initiated its Corona-vaccine development program four years ago with $4 million funding by the Israeli Ministry of Agriculture. Although it was originally for chickens... [1] http://www.migal.org.il/en/node/7010 http://www.migal.org.il/en/node/7010
blaser-waffle 6y ago
Not discussing it's possibility with the public -- "there is no cure!!" -- would cause a panic. There is no situation where "we're not working on vaccine" will sell well with anyone anywhere.
mb_72 6y ago
There is an informative and balanced take on this on the ABC News (Australia) site: https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616 https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-va...

sigmaprimus 6y ago
This NY Post story seems to show lack of supplies in hospitals contributed in the death of a healthcare worker. https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker-at-nyc-hospital-where-nurses-wear-trash-bags-as-protection-dies-from-coronavirus/ https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker-at-nyc-hospital-where-n... I accept your premise though, thats what makes this virus so scary, it kills otherwise healthy people even when the best treatment in the world is available. So what chance does an overweight ex smoker with pre diabetes like me have? Scary stuff!!
jjk166 6y ago
There aren't many hospitals that have run out of beds, but that's not the issue. Many have had to resort to inferior alternatives for PPE as primary supplies have run out and global shortages have made them impossible to restock. The price of melt-blown non-woven fabric, the bottleneck in the production of N95 masks, has increased 10x as the machines to produce more take months to build. In countries like the US, people were initially told not to wear face masks so as to preserve the supply for hospital use; while the decision was not irrational, those countries where face mask usage by the general population was widespread saw much lower infection rates, and while the US has changed course it is still quite probable that if people had masks from the get go we'd be better off. The shortage of ventilators has required rationing - ie where a patient would normally be put on a ventilator when they had much more mild symptoms (and better odds of survival) they are now delayed until the disease has further progressed. Luckily ventillators from less affected areas have been moved to worse hit ones which has taken the edge off the shortage to a degree. Testing kits have been an extreme limitation throughout the outbreak. Their low availability meant it was difficult to trace contacts early on, major transport hubs like airports did not have adequate access to screen likely carriers until the disease had already reached most countries, and even now millions of perfectly healthy people are living in fear as the tests which would tell them they'll be fine are reserved for those showing symptoms. While it has been pushed further than at any point in living memory, the US health system did not collapse; the outbreak has remained within a manageable range. This is true only because of massive measures taken to slow down the outbreak. Millions of people are in lockdown and huge sections of the economy have been either de jure or de facto shut down, which has already evaporated trillions of dollars in wealth, and no price can be put on the lives that have been lost as a result of avoidable infections and inferior medical care. If we were prepared, we wouldn't have had to take those emergency measures to keep the infection rate low enough for the healthcare system to survive.
wikibob 6y ago
You are wrong. Patients have died waiting in hallways for a bed. Read this first-hand account from a doctor in NYC: https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/14/im-an-e-r-doctor-in-new-york-none-of-us-will-ever-be-the-same/ https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/14/im-an-e-r-doctor-in-new-york-no... "Some others wait days in the E.R. for an inpatient bed, languishing in hallways. Their fates remain unknown. I pass by them when I first arrive at the E.R. and when I leave at the end of the day. Sometimes they are still there the next day. If they are awake, I’m hesitant to make eye contact. I’m too ashamed that after nearly 15 years as a doctor, I can’t do much more for them except put an oxygen mask over their nose and mouth."
Spooky23 6y ago
Your awareness needs some work.
twox2 6y ago
You're living under a rock. Folks have been turned away from the hospital and told to come back when they're dying.
- lurquer 6y ago
  I'm not living under a rock. I'm actually living a mile or two from a virtually empty hospital. The post I was responding to implied hospitals were overwhelmed. I simply asked which ones. Specically. Name them. If you don't know, fine. But, responding with downvotes snd insults doesn't seem productive. Two weeks ago, we (by 'we' I mean the 320 million+ who don't live in NYC) were told by Cuomo that hospitals would be overrun and 40,000+ ventilators would be needed. Thankfully, that wasn't true. Was it?
  - twox2 6y ago
    Living 2 miles away from a virtually empty hospital in the middle of nowhere = living under a rock. Here where there's a dense population, every hospital IS overrun and if they are not past capacity, it's literally because they turn you away unless you need severe intervention like intubation.