4 ms·

> but the trajectories don't lie Except for when they do. Easter just passed and the the trajectories are plotted up to and including today, when Sweden for ex

> but the trajectories don't lie Except for when they do. Easter just passed and the the trajectories are plotted up to and including today, when Sweden for example is adding deaths to dates two weeks back every day, and the last 5-7 days _ALWAYS_ looks like a downward trajectory. The last little spike there from before easter has grown by 35% since after easter and is still growing daily. You can't draw conclusions based on the trajectory of the last few days when an absolute majority of cases are added days, and up to weeks after.

henrikschroder 7y ago
Sure, but in that chart Italy for example has had a declining graph for over two weeks, which means you can be reasonably sure it's not growing exponentially there. And in Sweden's case, if you also look at the number of ICU admissions, they've been flat for weeks, and those numbers have very little lag. I'm not saying everything is fine, I'm not saying we're over the peak, but I am saying that it's not the case that any country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth and is going to turn into a zombie wasteland in a couple of days.
- matthewdgreen 7y ago
  You have to ask what phenomenon causes an exponential increase in deaths/day and does not increase ICU utilization. The answer I’ve seen seems to be “yes, the disease is killing a steadily growing number of people but they’re older and aren’t going to the ICU before they die.” This is where Italy was at one point; they just got there much later.
  - riffraff 7y ago
    As someone pointed out to me, the euromomo website is useful for this, it tracks the total mortality rate across Europe and compares it with the historical data. By ignoring the hospitalized/homestuck difference one can have a clearer idea of what is happening. Sadly I don't know of a way to get the data for the whole world.
    - innomatics 7y ago
      Euromomo data is really interesting to me because of these two points: 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the normal flu season spike in 2016 2) this year's flue season spike was low compared to recent years. Maybe due to a warmer summer? One interpretation could be that a large number of vulnerable people escaped death from regular ILIs this European season, only to sadly succome to this pandemic.
      - acqq 7y ago
        But all the countries did introduce various measures to slow down the spread. Otherwise nobody could claim that the numbers remained compatable.
        innomatics 7y ago
        Yes, which is wonderful. I am wondering what caused the large 2016 spike. Another interesting thing is the effect any behaviour changes are going to have on regular flu numbers. It's already looking to have a big effect in then southern hemisphere.
      - robocat 7y ago
        When looking at a single region like Bergamo, the death toll is four times higher than normal... Absolutely nothing like a normal flu season spike. See graph in http://archive.is/AaJ76 http://archive.is/AaJ76 If you look at the euromomo information for a country it is averaged across all regions, that includes those regions that started lockdown before severe outbreak, so the spike averages down to be small. I.e. you can’t look at the country info and make conclusions about the severity of the disease.
        innomatics 7y ago
        Agree with your points although the link was blocked for me. Do you think that a very mild flu season could possibly have made this outbreak worse?
- matthiasl 7y ago
  "ICU admissions [...] have very little lag." Sweden's ICU admissions number for a particular day usually takes a week or two to settle down. For instance, here's how the numbers were updated each following day for the number of ICU admissions on the second of April: 42, 42, 43, 46, 47, 49, 48, 49, 49, 49, 49, 52. So it took until the 14. of April for the reporting of the second of April to settle down---and we still don't know if it's going to change again or not. Source: I copied the numbers from the official site https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/ https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i... As far as I can tell, the official site doesn't record a history of what they reported, so the history is just what I manually copied to a file once a day when I happened to look. Do I think the lag is crucial? No. But it's unexpected to me.

henrikschroder 7y ago

Sure, but in that chart Italy for example has had a declining graph for over two weeks, which means you can be reasonably sure it's not growing exponentially there. And in Sweden's case, if you also look at the number of ICU admissions, they've been flat for weeks, and those numbers have very little lag. I'm not saying everything is fine, I'm not saying we're over the peak, but I am saying that it's not the case that any country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth and is going to turn into a zombie wasteland in a couple of days.

matthewdgreen 7y ago
You have to ask what phenomenon causes an exponential increase in deaths/day and does not increase ICU utilization. The answer I’ve seen seems to be “yes, the disease is killing a steadily growing number of people but they’re older and aren’t going to the ICU before they die.” This is where Italy was at one point; they just got there much later.
- riffraff 7y ago
  As someone pointed out to me, the euromomo website is useful for this, it tracks the total mortality rate across Europe and compares it with the historical data. By ignoring the hospitalized/homestuck difference one can have a clearer idea of what is happening. Sadly I don't know of a way to get the data for the whole world.
  - innomatics 7y ago
    Euromomo data is really interesting to me because of these two points: 1) the spike in death rate caused by Covid-19 this year is of the same magnitude as the normal flu season spike in 2016 2) this year's flue season spike was low compared to recent years. Maybe due to a warmer summer? One interpretation could be that a large number of vulnerable people escaped death from regular ILIs this European season, only to sadly succome to this pandemic.
    - acqq 7y ago
      But all the countries did introduce various measures to slow down the spread. Otherwise nobody could claim that the numbers remained compatable.
      - innomatics 7y ago
        Yes, which is wonderful. I am wondering what caused the large 2016 spike. Another interesting thing is the effect any behaviour changes are going to have on regular flu numbers. It's already looking to have a big effect in then southern hemisphere.
    - robocat 7y ago
      When looking at a single region like Bergamo, the death toll is four times higher than normal... Absolutely nothing like a normal flu season spike. See graph in http://archive.is/AaJ76 http://archive.is/AaJ76 If you look at the euromomo information for a country it is averaged across all regions, that includes those regions that started lockdown before severe outbreak, so the spike averages down to be small. I.e. you can’t look at the country info and make conclusions about the severity of the disease.
      - innomatics 7y ago
        Agree with your points although the link was blocked for me. Do you think that a very mild flu season could possibly have made this outbreak worse?
matthiasl 7y ago
"ICU admissions [...] have very little lag." Sweden's ICU admissions number for a particular day usually takes a week or two to settle down. For instance, here's how the numbers were updated each following day for the number of ICU admissions on the second of April: 42, 42, 43, 46, 47, 49, 48, 49, 49, 49, 49, 52. So it took until the 14. of April for the reporting of the second of April to settle down---and we still don't know if it's going to change again or not. Source: I copied the numbers from the official site https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/ https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i... As far as I can tell, the official site doesn't record a history of what they reported, so the history is just what I manually copied to a file once a day when I happened to look. Do I think the lag is crucial? No. But it's unexpected to me.