3 ms·
US cannot be leading exodus now because it has allowed entire industries to be completely outsourced and now suffers from having no specialists in many importan
by lmilcin 7y ago
US cannot be leading exodus now because it has allowed entire industries to be completely outsourced and now suffers from having no specialists in many important areas.
I predict that, thanks to Covid, China is going to gain because it was able to return to normal in 3 months while Europe and US will take most of the year at the very least.
Also China is beginning to be a world unto itself, sustainable in every aspect. They have large portion of world's population as a market, have mature all important industries, they even have their own internet.
Yes, they will be hurt if other countries pull back their production but no, they won't suffer as much as you may think. Countries that don't have all their industries, rely on export to balance the import.
If a country is self sufficient and it does not need import cutting entire export means that they are still balanced with regards to foreign trade.
Looking at China's imports (https://oec.world/en/profile/country/chn/ https://oec.world/en/profile/country/chn/), there doesn't seem to be many positions that the China can't fulfill internally. Probably raw materials like crude oil, gas, iron, copper. I am pretty sure they could ramp up the production of ICs and tools pretty quickly.
- touristtam 7y agoI would agree mostly with the analysis apart from the public sentiment toward China, and the latent nationalism existing in China itself. There are stress line that are coming to the front between EU/US and China partnership due to the political handling of covid-19. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a significant turn to protectionist measures on both side of the Atlantic coming, and specifically targeted at China.
- lmilcin 7y agoThis is not sentiment towards. It is a statement of fact. Don't get it wrong. Chinese people are not free. However, Chinese government knows what it wants and is effective in its actions. If you love freedom, turning away from factual reports and downvoting unpalatable opinions isn't going to help.
- surge 7y agoJust to hammer down the point: https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/testimonies/SFR%20for%20USCC%20TobinD%2020200313.pdf https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/testimonies/SFR%20f...
- tonyedgecombe 7y agoThe UK government has already started hinting at this. In reality it will probably take as long as it took to outsource everything to China and in the process we will all feel a little poorer.
- rramadass 7y agoYou are very right though it might be unpalatable to a lot of Westerners. By letting go of "Manufacturing", they did it to themselves. It is a fact and no amount of wishful thinking can negate it. My hope is that after this crisis, each country sets up its own "Manufacturing Base" and the idea of "Globalization" is rethought and redefined. We need a federation of relatively self-sufficient countries working together for mutual benefit so that we can weather any future similar crises.