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I don't think that's true. covid has stronger age dependence. Just look at the ratio of covid vs. influenza deaths on the CDC's website (https://www.cdc.gov/n
by usaar333 7y ago
I don't think that's true. covid has stronger age dependence. Just look at the ratio of covid vs. influenza deaths on the CDC's website (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm). 3:1 covid:flu for over 85, but 1:1 for 25-35 and 1:10 for children. (relative ratios as we don't know total covid infections).
This is especially striking with children: if the US had the same number of covid infections as seasonal flu, you'd probably have lower pediatric deaths from covid than flu.
- ashtonkem 7y agoThese statistics don’t support that conclusion, because these statistics are for total deaths. You can’t meaningfully compare the total deaths from a disease that’s done for the season (Flu) with one that’s still on going (COVID-19). What you should be comparing is case fatality rates.
- usaar333 7y agoBut can you not compare the ratios between age groups? That's all I'm doing here - showing deaths have a higher age correlation with covid than flu. - not making any statement about absolute CFR/IFR.
- ashtonkem 7y agoNo, because you don’t know what the infection rate is by each demographic. You have to compare just the case fatality rate. Comparing fatality ratios alone is too likely to measure unrelated factors.
- gpm 7y agoIt's more likely that cases/infections is skewed by age, because we test severe cases more than mild cases, than infections as a whole is skewed by age. Assuming infections are uniformly distributed, or rather have a similar distribution to the flu, seems entirely reasonable until we have good data suggesting otherwise.
- ashtonkem 7y agoThere is no reason to believe that infections aren’t skewed by age. We took a wide range of preventative measures that are completely unique within living memory, such as closing down most schools and colleges. Until we’ve actually done statistical analysis on who got sick, any predictions based on historical trends are largely invalid.
- gpm 7y agoSure, but there is also no reason to believe that they are. There is however very good reason to believe that testing is skewed by age.
- usaar333 7y agoFair enough, but would there be a reason it would be different? And even if it were, is that actually relevant? Anyway, here's some IFR estimations for covid by Imperial college: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... You see significantly higher multipliers by age group than for flu. As one example, they are guessing teenagers have 1/17th the mortality rate of say a 40 year old. For flu (going by deaths), it's about 1/5th.
- ashtonkem 7y agoThere is absolutely plenty of reason for the infection rate to be different by demographic: we closed schools down. We don’t do that for the flu.
- usaar333 7y agoWe also don't Shelter in place for flu. Bay Area school closure date is 1 day before SIP. Sweden and Iceland never closed schools for young kids. Data doesn't look any different.