5 ms·

This is the terrible take that will be everywhere in the next few weeks; “I think I had it, therefore I am an expert on the spread of this disease”. There is no

This is the terrible take that will be everywhere in the next few weeks; “I think I had it, therefore I am an expert on the spread of this disease”. There is no data or coherent argumentation here. I’m sorry you were sick, but this isn’t an argument based on facts, it’s an anecdote based off of little that might put people in danger. We need to inoculate ourselves from this argument because we are about to see it everywhere. Confirmation bias par excellence

Mikeb85 7y ago
Come on, all the data is out there. There's been 2 million confirmed cases. Pretty much every expert agrees theres far more undiagnosed cases. We know the testing rates. We know who's being tested. The information is out there. Our local health authority is literally giving away PPE... Seems your only argument is that the idea it's not as dangerous as initially assumed "might put people in danger". Except the fallout definitely will. Shutting down the economy, limiting health care access has real consequences.
- wbronitsky 7y ago
  I’m not asserting anything other than that this argument is not based on data. The data aren’t there, you aren’t an expert, and this argument doesn’t help anyone. That’s the most positive read I can give what I consider to be a reckless take, and this take will be EVERYWHERE in the next few weeks. We need to guard ourselves because this take is deceptive; it lets us feel superior to everyone who is freaking out, which will help individuals calm down at the expense of public health.
  - Mikeb85 7y ago
    If you want to be a doomer and ignore actual stats in favour of alarmism go ahead. It's your life. If you want to ever take your head out of the sand, here's some resources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://covid19.who.int/ https://covid19.who.int/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immunity.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immun... Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths.
    - Lewton 7y ago
      > Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths. What would you expect this to look like without a lockdown
      - Mikeb85 7y ago
        Probably something more like Sweden but then again, our demographics are pretty good. Either way, I'd expect all the potential deaths in a shorter timeframe. What I really would have preferred is a response more akin to Taiwan's. A lockdown was required because of how lax we were in allowing travellers to return from China and Europe with virtually no screening. Had we simply taken it seriously in January (our government was shockingly nonchalant back then) we could have avoided a lot.
Theodores 7y ago
I too am a 'pretty sure I had it already' person. I have also spoken to others that, like me, think they might have had it already. In the weeks before the story went crazy I bought a dehumidifier in the belief that this might help me eradicate a dry cough that would not go away. Not for one moment did I think I had coronavirus at the time, however, as time went on, I began to wonder. Placebo or not, the dehumidifier was an extraordinary measure and my symptoms had been remarkably similar to those of the dreaded disease. Because none of us were tested and because we didn't go to hospital we can be readily dismissed by those that only believe the TV news. The founding myth is also a bit odd. We have a flying mammal - a bat - passing the disease on to an ant-eating mammal nobody ever sees in zoos - the Malayan pangolin - for this creature to be smuggled into China to then make it to a seafood market to then infect Wuhan. The sources for this are lacking and it is lazy reporting dressed up as science. I am surprised Father Christmas isn't in there somewhere. The Spanish Flu of a century ago was only called that because neutral Spain wanted to know what was going on with the flu whereas the warmongering nations were blind to the epidemic that was wiping out their troops. There is a theory that the Chinese folk brought in to dig the trenches of WW1 were the source of the so-called Spanish Flu. I am open to the idea that the Chinese happened to do the research and pick up on covid-19 first, hence the idea that it came from Wuhan. But did it really? There are 7 billion or so humans with many billions of intensively farmed animals yet it was some endangered species that doomed us all? I am increasingly believing the anecdata is stronger than this 'pangolin story'. I am definitely open to the idea this virus was doing the rounds outside China although there is no proof. However, I see this as like the Spanish Flu, now believed to have not started in Spain. There is a Chinese saying about people too afraid to eat food in case they choke on it. Right now we are on track for everyone to stay indoors for eternity lest a Baby Boomer get it.
- asdf21 7y ago
  Same, I had it starting January 4th in the SF (North) Bay Area, I'm about 90% sure. I was probably basically a super spreader too, tbh. I went to work every day, 'cause I tend to power through whatever is thrown at me. At least I avoided shaking hands. People were even talking about it back then... they didn't know it was Corona, but friends I know who are nurses were saying there is a "weird, bad respiratory infection" going around, and a lot of "atypical pneumonia" and a "really bad flu season but it's a weird flu". We already had it weeks and weeks before the shelter-in-place in the Bay Area, I'm very sure.

Mikeb85 7y ago

Come on, all the data is out there. There's been 2 million confirmed cases. Pretty much every expert agrees theres far more undiagnosed cases. We know the testing rates. We know who's being tested. The information is out there. Our local health authority is literally giving away PPE... Seems your only argument is that the idea it's not as dangerous as initially assumed "might put people in danger". Except the fallout definitely will. Shutting down the economy, limiting health care access has real consequences.

wbronitsky 7y ago
I’m not asserting anything other than that this argument is not based on data. The data aren’t there, you aren’t an expert, and this argument doesn’t help anyone. That’s the most positive read I can give what I consider to be a reckless take, and this take will be EVERYWHERE in the next few weeks. We need to guard ourselves because this take is deceptive; it lets us feel superior to everyone who is freaking out, which will help individuals calm down at the expense of public health.
- Mikeb85 7y ago
  If you want to be a doomer and ignore actual stats in favour of alarmism go ahead. It's your life. If you want to ever take your head out of the sand, here's some resources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://covid19.who.int/ https://covid19.who.int/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immunity.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immun... Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths.
  - Lewton 7y ago
    > Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths. What would you expect this to look like without a lockdown
    - Mikeb85 7y ago
      Probably something more like Sweden but then again, our demographics are pretty good. Either way, I'd expect all the potential deaths in a shorter timeframe. What I really would have preferred is a response more akin to Taiwan's. A lockdown was required because of how lax we were in allowing travellers to return from China and Europe with virtually no screening. Had we simply taken it seriously in January (our government was shockingly nonchalant back then) we could have avoided a lot.

Theodores 7y ago

I too am a 'pretty sure I had it already' person. I have also spoken to others that, like me, think they might have had it already. In the weeks before the story went crazy I bought a dehumidifier in the belief that this might help me eradicate a dry cough that would not go away. Not for one moment did I think I had coronavirus at the time, however, as time went on, I began to wonder. Placebo or not, the dehumidifier was an extraordinary measure and my symptoms had been remarkably similar to those of the dreaded disease. Because none of us were tested and because we didn't go to hospital we can be readily dismissed by those that only believe the TV news. The founding myth is also a bit odd. We have a flying mammal - a bat - passing the disease on to an ant-eating mammal nobody ever sees in zoos - the Malayan pangolin - for this creature to be smuggled into China to then make it to a seafood market to then infect Wuhan. The sources for this are lacking and it is lazy reporting dressed up as science. I am surprised Father Christmas isn't in there somewhere. The Spanish Flu of a century ago was only called that because neutral Spain wanted to know what was going on with the flu whereas the warmongering nations were blind to the epidemic that was wiping out their troops. There is a theory that the Chinese folk brought in to dig the trenches of WW1 were the source of the so-called Spanish Flu. I am open to the idea that the Chinese happened to do the research and pick up on covid-19 first, hence the idea that it came from Wuhan. But did it really? There are 7 billion or so humans with many billions of intensively farmed animals yet it was some endangered species that doomed us all? I am increasingly believing the anecdata is stronger than this 'pangolin story'. I am definitely open to the idea this virus was doing the rounds outside China although there is no proof. However, I see this as like the Spanish Flu, now believed to have not started in Spain. There is a Chinese saying about people too afraid to eat food in case they choke on it. Right now we are on track for everyone to stay indoors for eternity lest a Baby Boomer get it.

asdf21 7y ago
Same, I had it starting January 4th in the SF (North) Bay Area, I'm about 90% sure. I was probably basically a super spreader too, tbh. I went to work every day, 'cause I tend to power through whatever is thrown at me. At least I avoided shaking hands. People were even talking about it back then... they didn't know it was Corona, but friends I know who are nurses were saying there is a "weird, bad respiratory infection" going around, and a lot of "atypical pneumonia" and a "really bad flu season but it's a weird flu". We already had it weeks and weeks before the shelter-in-place in the Bay Area, I'm very sure.