4 ms·

Making generalizations about the world at large based on your personal experience is a mistake. Look at the data.

by harryh 7y ago

brenden2 7y ago
Thanks!
bsder 7y ago
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Generalizations based upon experience are perfectly valid when the market is not flat. I suspect that there is lots of capital washing between insiders and very little outside the bubble.
- bryanrasmussen 7y ago
  there's also opinion, expert opinion, and statistics. the problem with statistics is you have to look how it's being used to figure out if you've got something lower than a damned lie or higher than an expert opinion. Which requires work and expertise of its own.
dvt 7y ago
I mean, yeah, look at the data: https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/21-charts-showing-current-trends-in-us-venture-capital https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/21-charts-showing-curren... It's not really a secret that angel and seed funding has been steadily dropping since the mid-2010s. With that said, I think that @brenden2 is overvaluing funding. Most people around here build software -- which can be easily bootstrapped. For those in hardware/biotech/energy/etc. it's much harder to get out an MVP without funding.
- bbrree66 7y ago
  Dang now Harry dun looks like a straight up goooooof. Should have checked the data.
- asah 7y ago
  Do startups need as much capital early on?
- harryh 7y ago
  Ya, I believe 2014 was the peak when it comes to seed deals per year so fair, we are below peak. But there was a TREMENDOUS rise starting in about 2005 or so (a combination of coming out of the dotcom bust then the rise of mobile with iOS/Android). Overall I see the availability of seed funding as still quite high. Very much agree with your last point about overvaluing funding. It's never been easier to bootstrap something for a year or two. Get an actual product working, maybe have a few users, and then go for funding to scale up. We see this in the data too with median company ages at the time of seed funding rising.
wesammikhail 7y ago
What cherry picked data are you looking at? Just because TOTAL investment amount is rising doesnt mean that it is lifting all boats. Pareto distribution 101.

Making generalizations about the world at large based on your personal experience is a mistake. Look at the data.

by harryh 7y ago

Making generalizations about the world at large based on your personal experience is a mistake. Look at the data.

brenden2 7y ago

Thanks!

bsder 7y ago

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Generalizations based upon experience are perfectly valid when the market is not flat. I suspect that there is lots of capital washing between insiders and very little outside the bubble.

bryanrasmussen 7y ago
there's also opinion, expert opinion, and statistics. the problem with statistics is you have to look how it's being used to figure out if you've got something lower than a damned lie or higher than an expert opinion. Which requires work and expertise of its own.

dvt 7y ago

I mean, yeah, look at the data: https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/21-charts-showing-current-trends-in-us-venture-capital https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/21-charts-showing-curren... It's not really a secret that angel and seed funding has been steadily dropping since the mid-2010s. With that said, I think that @brenden2 is overvaluing funding. Most people around here build software -- which can be easily bootstrapped. For those in hardware/biotech/energy/etc. it's much harder to get out an MVP without funding.

bbrree66 7y ago
Dang now Harry dun looks like a straight up goooooof. Should have checked the data.
asah 7y ago
Do startups need as much capital early on?
harryh 7y ago
Ya, I believe 2014 was the peak when it comes to seed deals per year so fair, we are below peak. But there was a TREMENDOUS rise starting in about 2005 or so (a combination of coming out of the dotcom bust then the rise of mobile with iOS/Android). Overall I see the availability of seed funding as still quite high. Very much agree with your last point about overvaluing funding. It's never been easier to bootstrap something for a year or two. Get an actual product working, maybe have a few users, and then go for funding to scale up. We see this in the data too with median company ages at the time of seed funding rising.

wesammikhail 7y ago

What cherry picked data are you looking at? Just because TOTAL investment amount is rising doesnt mean that it is lifting all boats. Pareto distribution 101.