Well, what happens if there is a Chelyabinsk x whatever factor event next week? Certainly lots of people worry about such things, just like pandemics. So maybe

Well, what happens if there is a Chelyabinsk x whatever factor event next week? Certainly lots of people worry about such things, just like pandemics. So maybe it's not a black swan. But I think it's predictable that most people would be really shocked and completely refocus their concerns once it happened. Anything that happens that startles people, almost certainly doesn't startle everybody. But anything that hasn't happened in a while, if ever, is going to startle most.