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Well if you define a black swan event as important then, sure, it's bound to be important. "Black swan defining characteristics: First, it is an outlier, as i
by downshun 6y ago
Well if you define a black swan event as important then, sure, it's bound to be important.
"Black swan defining characteristics:
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations(...).
Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'.
Third (...) we concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable."
- woodandsteel 6y agoNo, the conventional belief is that only a very small proportion of extremely rare events have a major impact, as measured by standard criteria of the importance of impact. Taleb is arguing that a much larger proportion them do.
- downshun 6y agoIf asked to plot the exact distribution of events in the (rarity, impact) vector space then I'm bound to getting it inaccurate more than not.