5 ms·

Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? > All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly tha

Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? > All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting You couldn't be more wrong. There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. They're the ones telling us this is way more deadly than it seems.

Mikeb85 6y ago
> Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? I mean I'm about 95% sure I already had it. Had literally every single symptom but the local health authority (Alberta, Canada) wouldn't test me. My SO had it worse but again, they wouldn't test her. Felt like a worse flu + more coughing and shortness of breath. Worse fever. My symptoms were bad for about 3 days, then felt like a cold for about a week, then a cough stuck around another week or two after. My SO had bad symptoms for about a week, was moderately sick for another week and a bit, but her symptoms disappeared pretty quickly afterwards. In either case, because we didn't require hospitalisation, AHS wouldn't test us. Anyhow, there's a massive body of evidence that there's many times more people infected than confirmed cases. Are you disputing that? Do you actually think there is no one infected other than confirmed cases? Our health authority, until a few days ago, wouldn't test anyone that wasn't a severe case or an at-risk group... You could literally have every single symptom and they'd simply tell you to stay home. Now they've only expanded testing because there's way less hospitalisations than their models predicted... Edit > There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. Maybe that's a failing of your health care system? In Canada hospitalisation rates are way less than predicted. Our province also gave away a bunch of PPE because it doesn't appear as though they'll get used. Edit 2 - described more symptoms
- joshuahedlund 6y ago
  With the orders of magnitudes involved here, it's possible for 1) many times more people infected than confirmed cases 2) many times more dangerous than the flu to both be true.
- wbronitsky 6y ago
  This is the terrible take that will be everywhere in the next few weeks; “I think I had it, therefore I am an expert on the spread of this disease”. There is no data or coherent argumentation here. I’m sorry you were sick, but this isn’t an argument based on facts, it’s an anecdote based off of little that might put people in danger. We need to inoculate ourselves from this argument because we are about to see it everywhere. Confirmation bias par excellence
  - Mikeb85 6y ago
    Come on, all the data is out there. There's been 2 million confirmed cases. Pretty much every expert agrees theres far more undiagnosed cases. We know the testing rates. We know who's being tested. The information is out there. Our local health authority is literally giving away PPE... Seems your only argument is that the idea it's not as dangerous as initially assumed "might put people in danger". Except the fallout definitely will. Shutting down the economy, limiting health care access has real consequences.
    - wbronitsky 6y ago
      I’m not asserting anything other than that this argument is not based on data. The data aren’t there, you aren’t an expert, and this argument doesn’t help anyone. That’s the most positive read I can give what I consider to be a reckless take, and this take will be EVERYWHERE in the next few weeks. We need to guard ourselves because this take is deceptive; it lets us feel superior to everyone who is freaking out, which will help individuals calm down at the expense of public health.
      - Mikeb85 6y ago
        If you want to be a doomer and ignore actual stats in favour of alarmism go ahead. It's your life. If you want to ever take your head out of the sand, here's some resources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://covid19.who.int/ https://covid19.who.int/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immunity.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immun... Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths.
- asdf21 6y ago
  When did you have it
  - Mikeb85 6y ago
    Late February.
- jeremyjh 6y ago
  > In Canada hospitalisation rates are way less than predicted. Let me guess - these are the predictions that were made before the social isolation actions were taken? Its the Y2K hoax all over again?
  - Mikeb85 6y ago
    Nah they were predictions assuming the measures we put into place a month ago. But as far as I could tell their assumptions also used data from Italy, whose population is significantly older and whose health care system is less functional.
- weeksie 6y ago
  How would more asymptomatic cases make this an overblown situation? Sure, there's evidence that there are lots of unreported cases but there's also quite incontrovertible evidence of death spikes in places that didn't implement swift restrictions. I get being frustrated at lockdown but your reasoning sounds motivated to me.
  - Mikeb85 6y ago
    More asymptomatic and mild cases would lower the death rate to something more akin to the flu. It would also mean that we'll achieve herd immunity quicker than previously assumed. Lots of the fear was based on assumptions that this would be as deadly as SARS or MERS but at this rate we're looking at overall deaths that is slightly higher than the flu but lower than things like cancer or heart disease.
    - weeksie 6y ago
      Head in the sand.
mns 6y ago
There are more hospitals and health workers doing nothing now globally (and no, I am not ignoring the outliers here, like Lombardy, Madrid, London, New York, I’m talking about the rest of the world), waiting for a wave that never came, even though everyone was 2 weeks behind Italy in the last 2 months. Cancer patients, people with other serious issues are being ignored now, if one of your parents had a condition that is not being treated any more, you might see things differently.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  People seem addicted to comparing numbers at a point in time and drawing conclusions, not considering whether they are changing at different rates, not to mention the derivative of the rate of change. Why would the ratio of, say, cases in NY vs Oklahoma vs. Japan stay constant? Just because? Clean living? I don't have expertise or authoritative predictions, I'm just saying that graphs are all over the place and practically everywhere has historical data with a different shape, and the end state/equilibrium is not know, except apparently, tentatively, for China and South Korea.
jki275 6y ago
Where? Outside of NYC, hospitals are laying off doctors and nurses because they cancelled all their elective work and have nearly no cases at all. I think there have been eight cases in my entire county, which has three hospitals.

Mikeb85 6y ago

> Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? I mean I'm about 95% sure I already had it. Had literally every single symptom but the local health authority (Alberta, Canada) wouldn't test me. My SO had it worse but again, they wouldn't test her. Felt like a worse flu + more coughing and shortness of breath. Worse fever. My symptoms were bad for about 3 days, then felt like a cold for about a week, then a cough stuck around another week or two after. My SO had bad symptoms for about a week, was moderately sick for another week and a bit, but her symptoms disappeared pretty quickly afterwards. In either case, because we didn't require hospitalisation, AHS wouldn't test us. Anyhow, there's a massive body of evidence that there's many times more people infected than confirmed cases. Are you disputing that? Do you actually think there is no one infected other than confirmed cases? Our health authority, until a few days ago, wouldn't test anyone that wasn't a severe case or an at-risk group... You could literally have every single symptom and they'd simply tell you to stay home. Now they've only expanded testing because there's way less hospitalisations than their models predicted... Edit > There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. Maybe that's a failing of your health care system? In Canada hospitalisation rates are way less than predicted. Our province also gave away a bunch of PPE because it doesn't appear as though they'll get used. Edit 2 - described more symptoms

joshuahedlund 6y ago
With the orders of magnitudes involved here, it's possible for 1) many times more people infected than confirmed cases 2) many times more dangerous than the flu to both be true.
wbronitsky 6y ago
This is the terrible take that will be everywhere in the next few weeks; “I think I had it, therefore I am an expert on the spread of this disease”. There is no data or coherent argumentation here. I’m sorry you were sick, but this isn’t an argument based on facts, it’s an anecdote based off of little that might put people in danger. We need to inoculate ourselves from this argument because we are about to see it everywhere. Confirmation bias par excellence
- Mikeb85 6y ago
  Come on, all the data is out there. There's been 2 million confirmed cases. Pretty much every expert agrees theres far more undiagnosed cases. We know the testing rates. We know who's being tested. The information is out there. Our local health authority is literally giving away PPE... Seems your only argument is that the idea it's not as dangerous as initially assumed "might put people in danger". Except the fallout definitely will. Shutting down the economy, limiting health care access has real consequences.
  - wbronitsky 6y ago
    I’m not asserting anything other than that this argument is not based on data. The data aren’t there, you aren’t an expert, and this argument doesn’t help anyone. That’s the most positive read I can give what I consider to be a reckless take, and this take will be EVERYWHERE in the next few weeks. We need to guard ourselves because this take is deceptive; it lets us feel superior to everyone who is freaking out, which will help individuals calm down at the expense of public health.
    - Mikeb85 6y ago
      If you want to be a doomer and ignore actual stats in favour of alarmism go ahead. It's your life. If you want to ever take your head out of the sand, here's some resources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://covid19.who.int/ https://covid19.who.int/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immunity.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immun... Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths.
asdf21 6y ago
When did you have it
- Mikeb85 6y ago
  Late February.
jeremyjh 6y ago
> In Canada hospitalisation rates are way less than predicted. Let me guess - these are the predictions that were made before the social isolation actions were taken? Its the Y2K hoax all over again?
- Mikeb85 6y ago
  Nah they were predictions assuming the measures we put into place a month ago. But as far as I could tell their assumptions also used data from Italy, whose population is significantly older and whose health care system is less functional.
weeksie 6y ago
How would more asymptomatic cases make this an overblown situation? Sure, there's evidence that there are lots of unreported cases but there's also quite incontrovertible evidence of death spikes in places that didn't implement swift restrictions. I get being frustrated at lockdown but your reasoning sounds motivated to me.
- Mikeb85 6y ago
  More asymptomatic and mild cases would lower the death rate to something more akin to the flu. It would also mean that we'll achieve herd immunity quicker than previously assumed. Lots of the fear was based on assumptions that this would be as deadly as SARS or MERS but at this rate we're looking at overall deaths that is slightly higher than the flu but lower than things like cancer or heart disease.
  - weeksie 6y ago
    Head in the sand.

mns 6y ago

There are more hospitals and health workers doing nothing now globally (and no, I am not ignoring the outliers here, like Lombardy, Madrid, London, New York, I’m talking about the rest of the world), waiting for a wave that never came, even though everyone was 2 weeks behind Italy in the last 2 months. Cancer patients, people with other serious issues are being ignored now, if one of your parents had a condition that is not being treated any more, you might see things differently.

perl4ever 6y ago
People seem addicted to comparing numbers at a point in time and drawing conclusions, not considering whether they are changing at different rates, not to mention the derivative of the rate of change. Why would the ratio of, say, cases in NY vs Oklahoma vs. Japan stay constant? Just because? Clean living? I don't have expertise or authoritative predictions, I'm just saying that graphs are all over the place and practically everywhere has historical data with a different shape, and the end state/equilibrium is not know, except apparently, tentatively, for China and South Korea.

jki275 6y ago

Where? Outside of NYC, hospitals are laying off doctors and nurses because they cancelled all their elective work and have nearly no cases at all. I think there have been eight cases in my entire county, which has three hospitals.