4 ms·

All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting (after all, increase the denominator, the %

All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting (after all, increase the denominator, the % goes down). The countries with the lowest death rates are also the countries that did the most comprehensive testing. Ditto for this aircraft carrier. Of course governments and outlets are fearmongering lest they be accused of not doing enough, but this thing is way overblown and I fear we'll be living with the consequences for an entire generation.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
coherentpony 7y ago
Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? > All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting You couldn't be more wrong. There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. They're the ones telling us this is way more deadly than it seems.
- Mikeb85 7y ago
  > Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? I mean I'm about 95% sure I already had it. Had literally every single symptom but the local health authority (Alberta, Canada) wouldn't test me. My SO had it worse but again, they wouldn't test her. Felt like a worse flu + more coughing and shortness of breath. Worse fever. My symptoms were bad for about 3 days, then felt like a cold for about a week, then a cough stuck around another week or two after. My SO had bad symptoms for about a week, was moderately sick for another week and a bit, but her symptoms disappeared pretty quickly afterwards. In either case, because we didn't require hospitalisation, AHS wouldn't test us. Anyhow, there's a massive body of evidence that there's many times more people infected than confirmed cases. Are you disputing that? Do you actually think there is no one infected other than confirmed cases? Our health authority, until a few days ago, wouldn't test anyone that wasn't a severe case or an at-risk group... You could literally have every single symptom and they'd simply tell you to stay home. Now they've only expanded testing because there's way less hospitalisations than their models predicted... Edit > There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. Maybe that's a failing of your health care system? In Canada hospitalisation rates are way less than predicted. Our province also gave away a bunch of PPE because it doesn't appear as though they'll get used. Edit 2 - described more symptoms
  - joshuahedlund 7y ago
    With the orders of magnitudes involved here, it's possible for 1) many times more people infected than confirmed cases 2) many times more dangerous than the flu to both be true.
  - wbronitsky 7y ago
    This is the terrible take that will be everywhere in the next few weeks; “I think I had it, therefore I am an expert on the spread of this disease”. There is no data or coherent argumentation here. I’m sorry you were sick, but this isn’t an argument based on facts, it’s an anecdote based off of little that might put people in danger. We need to inoculate ourselves from this argument because we are about to see it everywhere. Confirmation bias par excellence
    - Mikeb85 7y ago
      Come on, all the data is out there. There's been 2 million confirmed cases. Pretty much every expert agrees theres far more undiagnosed cases. We know the testing rates. We know who's being tested. The information is out there. Our local health authority is literally giving away PPE... Seems your only argument is that the idea it's not as dangerous as initially assumed "might put people in danger". Except the fallout definitely will. Shutting down the economy, limiting health care access has real consequences.
      - wbronitsky 7y ago
        I’m not asserting anything other than that this argument is not based on data. The data aren’t there, you aren’t an expert, and this argument doesn’t help anyone. That’s the most positive read I can give what I consider to be a reckless take, and this take will be EVERYWHERE in the next few weeks. We need to guard ourselves because this take is deceptive; it lets us feel superior to everyone who is freaking out, which will help individuals calm down at the expense of public health.
        Mikeb85 7y ago
- mns 7y ago
  There are more hospitals and health workers doing nothing now globally (and no, I am not ignoring the outliers here, like Lombardy, Madrid, London, New York, I’m talking about the rest of the world), waiting for a wave that never came, even though everyone was 2 weeks behind Italy in the last 2 months. Cancer patients, people with other serious issues are being ignored now, if one of your parents had a condition that is not being treated any more, you might see things differently.
  - perl4ever 7y ago
    People seem addicted to comparing numbers at a point in time and drawing conclusions, not considering whether they are changing at different rates, not to mention the derivative of the rate of change. Why would the ratio of, say, cases in NY vs Oklahoma vs. Japan stay constant? Just because? Clean living? I don't have expertise or authoritative predictions, I'm just saying that graphs are all over the place and practically everywhere has historical data with a different shape, and the end state/equilibrium is not know, except apparently, tentatively, for China and South Korea.
- jki275 7y ago
  Where? Outside of NYC, hospitals are laying off doctors and nurses because they cancelled all their elective work and have nearly no cases at all. I think there have been eight cases in my entire county, which has three hospitals.
mns 7y ago
Sad to see that everything that tries to bring some positivity to this crisis or a different point of view gets downvoted into oblivion here, including studies and opinions on how we’re doing more harm with certain measures.
- Mikeb85 7y ago
  I get it. Everyone wants to find some meaning and importance to justify what's going on. Tons of jobs and wealth are being destroyed, governments are issuing tons of debt and expanding the money supply, people need to believe they're saving millions of lives.
- chasd00 7y ago
  really, the issue is no one wants to admit they were wrong.
Lewton 7y ago
No amount of lowering the IFR will change what has happened and is happening in New York, Italy and Spain
- postalrat 7y ago
  http://www.euromomo.eu/ http://www.euromomo.eu/ Looks like they are catching up from 2 years of mild flu seasons.
  - Lewton 7y ago
    So? That doesn’t change that their hospitals are being completely ddos’ed
empath75 7y ago
Explain the bodies piled up on hospital hallways.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
losvedir 7y ago
Follow the Iceland data. They've tested about 10% of their population, including random testing of seemingly healthy people. They've almost eliminated new cases. Death follows about three weeks after symptoms, so we'll know the infection fatality rate soon. Right now it's quite low there, but I predict it will trend towards 1% - 1.5% like we saw in Germany and South Korea, whose rates also started out low. That's >10x the death rate of the flu and would indicate half a million to a million dead in the US.
adrr 7y ago
We locked most of the nation down for almost a month and still overloaded medical infrastructure and had to build field hospitals. We're burying people in parks and storing bodies in mobile freezers. Most elective surgeries are still on hold because the hospitals are filled with Covid patients. A few nations had to ration health care and didn't treat people over 60. What other disease has done this since the Spanish flu?

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

coherentpony 7y ago

Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? > All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting You couldn't be more wrong. There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. They're the ones telling us this is way more deadly than it seems.

Mikeb85 7y ago
> Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? I mean I'm about 95% sure I already had it. Had literally every single symptom but the local health authority (Alberta, Canada) wouldn't test me. My SO had it worse but again, they wouldn't test her. Felt like a worse flu + more coughing and shortness of breath. Worse fever. My symptoms were bad for about 3 days, then felt like a cold for about a week, then a cough stuck around another week or two after. My SO had bad symptoms for about a week, was moderately sick for another week and a bit, but her symptoms disappeared pretty quickly afterwards. In either case, because we didn't require hospitalisation, AHS wouldn't test us. Anyhow, there's a massive body of evidence that there's many times more people infected than confirmed cases. Are you disputing that? Do you actually think there is no one infected other than confirmed cases? Our health authority, until a few days ago, wouldn't test anyone that wasn't a severe case or an at-risk group... You could literally have every single symptom and they'd simply tell you to stay home. Now they've only expanded testing because there's way less hospitalisations than their models predicted... Edit > There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. Maybe that's a failing of your health care system? In Canada hospitalisation rates are way less than predicted. Our province also gave away a bunch of PPE because it doesn't appear as though they'll get used. Edit 2 - described more symptoms
- joshuahedlund 7y ago
  With the orders of magnitudes involved here, it's possible for 1) many times more people infected than confirmed cases 2) many times more dangerous than the flu to both be true.
- wbronitsky 7y ago
  This is the terrible take that will be everywhere in the next few weeks; “I think I had it, therefore I am an expert on the spread of this disease”. There is no data or coherent argumentation here. I’m sorry you were sick, but this isn’t an argument based on facts, it’s an anecdote based off of little that might put people in danger. We need to inoculate ourselves from this argument because we are about to see it everywhere. Confirmation bias par excellence
  - Mikeb85 7y ago
    Come on, all the data is out there. There's been 2 million confirmed cases. Pretty much every expert agrees theres far more undiagnosed cases. We know the testing rates. We know who's being tested. The information is out there. Our local health authority is literally giving away PPE... Seems your only argument is that the idea it's not as dangerous as initially assumed "might put people in danger". Except the fallout definitely will. Shutting down the economy, limiting health care access has real consequences.
    - wbronitsky 7y ago
      I’m not asserting anything other than that this argument is not based on data. The data aren’t there, you aren’t an expert, and this argument doesn’t help anyone. That’s the most positive read I can give what I consider to be a reckless take, and this take will be EVERYWHERE in the next few weeks. We need to guard ourselves because this take is deceptive; it lets us feel superior to everyone who is freaking out, which will help individuals calm down at the expense of public health.
      - Mikeb85 7y ago
mns 7y ago
There are more hospitals and health workers doing nothing now globally (and no, I am not ignoring the outliers here, like Lombardy, Madrid, London, New York, I’m talking about the rest of the world), waiting for a wave that never came, even though everyone was 2 weeks behind Italy in the last 2 months. Cancer patients, people with other serious issues are being ignored now, if one of your parents had a condition that is not being treated any more, you might see things differently.
- perl4ever 7y ago
  People seem addicted to comparing numbers at a point in time and drawing conclusions, not considering whether they are changing at different rates, not to mention the derivative of the rate of change. Why would the ratio of, say, cases in NY vs Oklahoma vs. Japan stay constant? Just because? Clean living? I don't have expertise or authoritative predictions, I'm just saying that graphs are all over the place and practically everywhere has historical data with a different shape, and the end state/equilibrium is not know, except apparently, tentatively, for China and South Korea.
jki275 7y ago
Where? Outside of NYC, hospitals are laying off doctors and nurses because they cancelled all their elective work and have nearly no cases at all. I think there have been eight cases in my entire county, which has three hospitals.

mns 7y ago

Sad to see that everything that tries to bring some positivity to this crisis or a different point of view gets downvoted into oblivion here, including studies and opinions on how we’re doing more harm with certain measures.

Mikeb85 7y ago
I get it. Everyone wants to find some meaning and importance to justify what's going on. Tons of jobs and wealth are being destroyed, governments are issuing tons of debt and expanding the money supply, people need to believe they're saving millions of lives.
chasd00 7y ago
really, the issue is no one wants to admit they were wrong.

Lewton 7y ago

No amount of lowering the IFR will change what has happened and is happening in New York, Italy and Spain

postalrat 7y ago
http://www.euromomo.eu/ http://www.euromomo.eu/ Looks like they are catching up from 2 years of mild flu seasons.
- Lewton 7y ago
  So? That doesn’t change that their hospitals are being completely ddos’ed

empath75 7y ago

Explain the bodies piled up on hospital hallways.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

losvedir 7y ago

Follow the Iceland data. They've tested about 10% of their population, including random testing of seemingly healthy people. They've almost eliminated new cases. Death follows about three weeks after symptoms, so we'll know the infection fatality rate soon. Right now it's quite low there, but I predict it will trend towards 1% - 1.5% like we saw in Germany and South Korea, whose rates also started out low. That's >10x the death rate of the flu and would indicate half a million to a million dead in the US.

adrr 7y ago

We locked most of the nation down for almost a month and still overloaded medical infrastructure and had to build field hospitals. We're burying people in parks and storing bodies in mobile freezers. Most elective surgeries are still on hold because the hospitals are filled with Covid patients. A few nations had to ration health care and didn't treat people over 60. What other disease has done this since the Spanish flu?