5 ms·

Those death rates in US are optimistic in my opinion. What if the actual rate is higher because of worse health in impoverished demographics, or the simple fact

Those death rates in US are optimistic in my opinion. What if the actual rate is higher because of worse health in impoverished demographics, or the simple fact people might avoid healthcare because of its prohibitive costs?

glofish 7y ago
these death rates come from published research if anything the death rates over across all age groups are even lower - this is a very common observation as initially most non-symptomatic are missed. there is a very strong age dependence with this disease, and probably many other risk factors - predisposition to pneumonia etc.
- pesfandiar 7y ago
  If I understand correctly, research about the death rate is based on people who were tested positive (any source that's based on the general population?). This, depending on the region, could mean people with severe symptoms or non-randomly-selected test takers only. This adds much uncertainty to the estimated overall infection numbers.
three_seagrass 7y ago
Lots of people in NYC are getting dragged out of their homes in body bags that will never get tested. https://www.yahoo.com/news/teams-retrieving-280-bodies-day-170100636.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/teams-retrieving-280-bodies-day-1...
- radioactivist 7y ago
  They are now including many of the suspected (but untested) cases in their reported numbers now. It increased the total from New York by a significant amount, see [1]. The increase is roughly in line with similar estimates from excess mortality [2], so I would guess they are catching most of the deaths with the new reporting scheme. [1] https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04142020.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/corona...
owl57 7y ago
It's not just cost. I'm starting to think that if I get sick (covid or otherwise) until the hospital overload subsides, I might have better chances to recover in my own bed even in a relatively severe case.

glofish 7y ago

these death rates come from published research if anything the death rates over across all age groups are even lower - this is a very common observation as initially most non-symptomatic are missed. there is a very strong age dependence with this disease, and probably many other risk factors - predisposition to pneumonia etc.

pesfandiar 7y ago
If I understand correctly, research about the death rate is based on people who were tested positive (any source that's based on the general population?). This, depending on the region, could mean people with severe symptoms or non-randomly-selected test takers only. This adds much uncertainty to the estimated overall infection numbers.

three_seagrass 7y ago

Lots of people in NYC are getting dragged out of their homes in body bags that will never get tested. https://www.yahoo.com/news/teams-retrieving-280-bodies-day-170100636.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/teams-retrieving-280-bodies-day-1...

radioactivist 7y ago
They are now including many of the suspected (but untested) cases in their reported numbers now. It increased the total from New York by a significant amount, see [1]. The increase is roughly in line with similar estimates from excess mortality [2], so I would guess they are catching most of the deaths with the new reporting scheme. [1] https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04142020.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/corona...

owl57 7y ago

It's not just cost. I'm starting to think that if I get sick (covid or otherwise) until the hospital overload subsides, I might have better chances to recover in my own bed even in a relatively severe case.