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Another point is that these charts likely are showing that for a given set of already infected people you are seeing a saturation curve. Initially high growth —
by xt00 6y ago
Another point is that these charts likely are showing that for a given set of already infected people you are seeing a saturation curve. Initially high growth — high % increase per day or per week. But then eventually you are saturating the population — not saturating the entire population but saturating the initial population who are already infected.
Likely the main takeaway here is that because of the lag time between infection and symptoms it’s quite possible a huge number of people got infected in certain areas earlier than people thought and by the time the curve started ticking up the entire situation was already going to follow a particular trend.. for example let’s say the virus was spreading widely in feb, but then we started to see symptoms in March, but by then tons of people already had it, so any measures you put in place are seemingly disconnected from the actual trend you see. Therefore, it could be that the impact of the measures in March will only be obvious by end of April or something like that..