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He has certainly been proved right about black swans been way more common than people assumed. Kind a sux.
by WheelsAtLarge 7y ago
He has certainly been proved right about black swans been way more common than people assumed. Kind a sux.
- iwangulenko 7y agoI think Taleb said coronavirus isn't one because pandemics are a known thing.
- perl4ever 7y agoWell, what happens if there is a Chelyabinsk x whatever factor event next week? Certainly lots of people worry about such things, just like pandemics. So maybe it's not a black swan. But I think it's predictable that most people would be really shocked and completely refocus their concerns once it happened. Anything that happens that startles people, almost certainly doesn't startle everybody. But anything that hasn't happened in a while, if ever, is going to startle most.
- WheelsAtLarge 7y agoHow can it not be? Pandemics are known events but one that gets out of control with a large economic impact is really out of the norm. Simply put we were unprepared for it because we thought it was such a small possibility that it was unlikely to happen anytime soon. The history books will talk about how it was predictable and we should have been ready. Yet, here we are, unprepared and dealing with it. It reminds me of Pearl Harbor. History books talk about how the U.S. had warning that it was coming and that the U.S. should had known that it was coming even without warning. But as we know, no one was ready for it.
- mjirv 7y agoTo be a little pedantic, this isn't really how I would summarize Taleb. His main idea is that Black Swan events are extremely important because of their outsized impacts, not because they are more frequent than people think.
- downshun 7y agoWell if you define a black swan event as important then, sure, it's bound to be important. "Black swan defining characteristics: First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations(...). Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third (...) we concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable."
- woodandsteel 7y agoNo, the conventional belief is that only a very small proportion of extremely rare events have a major impact, as measured by standard criteria of the importance of impact. Taleb is arguing that a much larger proportion them do.
- downshun 7y agoIf asked to plot the exact distribution of events in the (rarity, impact) vector space then I'm bound to getting it inaccurate more than not.
- WheelsAtLarge 7y agoNope, one of his points, he has more than one, IS that Black Swans are more common than people can compute. Black Swans are unexpected outsized events that have a great impact, as he defines them.