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Yeah I think this is a bit of an artificial recession in that demand hasn't declined for any of the normal reasons, but because people are being forced not to c

Yeah I think this is a bit of an artificial recession in that demand hasn't declined for any of the normal reasons, but because people are being forced not to consume. My guess is that means recovery will be quicker because all of the pent up demand will explode once the restrictions are lifted. I could be wrong though. I could see a situation where people are skittish and decide to increase their savings long term--less travel, less eating out etc...

brenden2 6y ago
Right. I've been noticing on my walks how many Amazon delivery trucks there are, how many Amazon boxes are sitting outside in the trash piles. While people certainly aren't spending money dining out, they're still going HAM with their online shopping. There's so much doom and gloom in the news, but when I look at the real data I'm not seeing anything that supports the apocalypse predictions.
- ardy42 6y ago
  >> Yeah I think this is a bit of an artificial recession in that demand hasn't declined for any of the normal reasons, but because people are being forced not to consume. > Right. I've been noticing on my walks how many Amazon delivery trucks there are, how many Amazon boxes are sitting outside in the trash piles. While people certainly aren't spending money dining out, they're still going HAM with their online shopping. I don't think that observation indicates what you seem to think it does. Amazon's has been scheduling delivery for "non-essential" items far out to April 30th for some time now, and many people have been attempting to shift their retail shopping for essentials to delivery services in order to socially distance to avoid the coronavirus. Those boxes might have had things like toothpaste and diapers that people need to buy, recession or no.
  - learc83 6y ago
    > Amazon's has been scheduling delivery for "non-essential" items far out to April 30th for some time now They still have many non-essential items available for delivery in a few days, and you be surprised what is considered essential.
chrononaut 6y ago
This lockdown has also forced a lot of people to dig into their savings just to pay rent, which is going to be savings they are not going to have coming out of this. Consumer demand may take longer to recover due to this alone in order to rebuild their savings as you mentioned.
- learc83 6y ago
  If that's the case, and lack of cash is the only thing holding back demand, then it's a perfect situation for government stimulus. I know several service industry people who are making more on unemployment now thanks to the extra federal money than they were while working.
JoeAltmaier 6y ago
There won't be pent-up cash reserves? Because, unemployed for weeks/months. So folks will have to delay purchases. There will be a big bubble following this, which normally is called a recession.
- learc83 6y ago
  I know several service industry people who are making more on unemployment now thanks to the extra federal money than they were while working. Add to that the fact that they aren't eating out, traveling etc... and their savings are doing better now than they were. This definitely isn't the same everywhere, and higher income people will be making a lot less. But lower income spend faster anyway.
  - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
    Things are costing more too. And there are extra purchases now. On the other hand, fewer opportunities for discretionary spending. Few are out buying lattes or seeing movies. I guess we'll see.

brenden2 6y ago

Right. I've been noticing on my walks how many Amazon delivery trucks there are, how many Amazon boxes are sitting outside in the trash piles. While people certainly aren't spending money dining out, they're still going HAM with their online shopping. There's so much doom and gloom in the news, but when I look at the real data I'm not seeing anything that supports the apocalypse predictions.

ardy42 6y ago
>> Yeah I think this is a bit of an artificial recession in that demand hasn't declined for any of the normal reasons, but because people are being forced not to consume. > Right. I've been noticing on my walks how many Amazon delivery trucks there are, how many Amazon boxes are sitting outside in the trash piles. While people certainly aren't spending money dining out, they're still going HAM with their online shopping. I don't think that observation indicates what you seem to think it does. Amazon's has been scheduling delivery for "non-essential" items far out to April 30th for some time now, and many people have been attempting to shift their retail shopping for essentials to delivery services in order to socially distance to avoid the coronavirus. Those boxes might have had things like toothpaste and diapers that people need to buy, recession or no.
- learc83 6y ago
  > Amazon's has been scheduling delivery for "non-essential" items far out to April 30th for some time now They still have many non-essential items available for delivery in a few days, and you be surprised what is considered essential.

chrononaut 6y ago

This lockdown has also forced a lot of people to dig into their savings just to pay rent, which is going to be savings they are not going to have coming out of this. Consumer demand may take longer to recover due to this alone in order to rebuild their savings as you mentioned.

learc83 6y ago
If that's the case, and lack of cash is the only thing holding back demand, then it's a perfect situation for government stimulus. I know several service industry people who are making more on unemployment now thanks to the extra federal money than they were while working.

JoeAltmaier 6y ago

There won't be pent-up cash reserves? Because, unemployed for weeks/months. So folks will have to delay purchases. There will be a big bubble following this, which normally is called a recession.

learc83 6y ago
I know several service industry people who are making more on unemployment now thanks to the extra federal money than they were while working. Add to that the fact that they aren't eating out, traveling etc... and their savings are doing better now than they were. This definitely isn't the same everywhere, and higher income people will be making a lot less. But lower income spend faster anyway.
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Things are costing more too. And there are extra purchases now. On the other hand, fewer opportunities for discretionary spending. Few are out buying lattes or seeing movies. I guess we'll see.