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I am expecting to see record business at the local bars when the lockdowns end. The demand is still there.

brenden2 7y ago
That's funny, but it's something I've been thinking about too. When things open up I want to go see friends and catch up.
ashtonkem 7y ago
Doubtful. There’s not going to be a clear end time to this shut down, and I for one won’t be going to a bar until I’m vaccinated.
- gpickett00 7y ago
  You’re getting downvoted but I fully agree. Most people are talking as if the virus will be gone in a month or so. The lockdowns are not going away. We are going to have new hotspots popping up every week once lockdowns start releasing.
  - macintux 7y ago
    The downvotes in this sub-thread really confuse me. Do people honestly believe this virus is going away?
    - ashtonkem 7y ago
      Even if it does, and I don’t know if it’ll ever go away, there’s not going to be a single date when it’s cool for us to go back to normal. Even a vaccine will take weeks or months to manufacture and distribute to the entire planet, if we even had one. There won’t be a clear end date, even in retrospect.
- standardUser 7y ago
  There may never be a vaccine. If one can be developed, it may take years and it may not be completely safe and recommended for everyone.
  - ashtonkem 7y ago
    I’ve resigned myself to the general understanding that any vaccine, if it’s possible, will most likely be out next year or later.
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    There are 115 vaccines in development now, in four very broad categories. This is a well-understood process and will very, very likely lead to several viable vaccines. Further, inoculation can occur much sooner. That is, introducing antibodies obtained from recovered folk, into vulnerable folk. This is nearing deployment right now. Don't be a wet blanket. Its not all bleak.
    - macintux 7y ago
      We don’t even know yet that people who have been previously infected have gained immunity. It’s fine to be optimistic, but there are no guarantees here.
      - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
        That seems like more wet blanket. How often does recovery not give immunity? Lets keep it real.
        macintux 7y ago
        In addition to the sibling comment, there’s also the unlikely dengue scenario where getting infected once actually makes the next time worse. Let’s hope we solve this virus (for whatever definition applies; we’re not particularly good at solving viruses) and apply some of that same effort to dengue before the world gets much warmer and it spreads.
macintux 7y ago
Dear heavens I hope not. That would mean people haven’t learned a damned thing, and would also mean we’d be back in lockdown quickly (or would regret not doing so).
thehoff 7y ago
I don't think right away. There will be segments of the population still wary to go out into public places where you're shoulder to shoulder with others. It'll take time for people to get comfortable with this (or a vaccine is developed). edit: Sure there will be groups where this will be the case but not enough to cause packed bars.
JoeAltmaier 7y ago
With what cash? The 20M Americans out of a job will have spent any ready money on food and rent.
- _curious_ 7y ago
  Americans will find ways to spend money they don't have on things they don't need - like alcohol.
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    Don't know any bartender that will take a promise...
    - _curious_ 7y ago
      Do you know any people who will beg, borrow, or steal to purchase alcohol off-sale?
the_snooze 7y ago
Heading into the lockdowns, the data doesn't bear that out. Restaurant demand crashed before lockdowns were in place: https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry The US had a > 90% decline in bookings by March 18. California was one of the more aggressive places with issuing a statewide lockdown, but that didn't happen until March 19: https://abc7news.com/timeline-of-coronavirus-us-coronvirus-bay-area-sf/6047519/ https://abc7news.com/timeline-of-coronavirus-us-coronvirus-b...
- standardUser 7y ago
  Restaurants were closing or limiting business before official lockdowns in pretty much every jurisdiction that has had a lockdown. You need to look a week or two before official lockdown dates to see the start of declining business.

That's funny, but it's something I've been thinking about too. When things open up I want to go see friends and catch up.

ashtonkem 7y ago

Doubtful. There’s not going to be a clear end time to this shut down, and I for one won’t be going to a bar until I’m vaccinated.

gpickett00 7y ago
You’re getting downvoted but I fully agree. Most people are talking as if the virus will be gone in a month or so. The lockdowns are not going away. We are going to have new hotspots popping up every week once lockdowns start releasing.
- macintux 7y ago
  The downvotes in this sub-thread really confuse me. Do people honestly believe this virus is going away?
  - ashtonkem 7y ago
    Even if it does, and I don’t know if it’ll ever go away, there’s not going to be a single date when it’s cool for us to go back to normal. Even a vaccine will take weeks or months to manufacture and distribute to the entire planet, if we even had one. There won’t be a clear end date, even in retrospect.
standardUser 7y ago
There may never be a vaccine. If one can be developed, it may take years and it may not be completely safe and recommended for everyone.
- ashtonkem 7y ago
  I’ve resigned myself to the general understanding that any vaccine, if it’s possible, will most likely be out next year or later.
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  There are 115 vaccines in development now, in four very broad categories. This is a well-understood process and will very, very likely lead to several viable vaccines. Further, inoculation can occur much sooner. That is, introducing antibodies obtained from recovered folk, into vulnerable folk. This is nearing deployment right now. Don't be a wet blanket. Its not all bleak.
  - macintux 7y ago
    We don’t even know yet that people who have been previously infected have gained immunity. It’s fine to be optimistic, but there are no guarantees here.
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      That seems like more wet blanket. How often does recovery not give immunity? Lets keep it real.
      - macintux 7y ago
        In addition to the sibling comment, there’s also the unlikely dengue scenario where getting infected once actually makes the next time worse. Let’s hope we solve this virus (for whatever definition applies; we’re not particularly good at solving viruses) and apply some of that same effort to dengue before the world gets much warmer and it spreads.

macintux 7y ago

Dear heavens I hope not. That would mean people haven’t learned a damned thing, and would also mean we’d be back in lockdown quickly (or would regret not doing so).

thehoff 7y ago

I don't think right away. There will be segments of the population still wary to go out into public places where you're shoulder to shoulder with others. It'll take time for people to get comfortable with this (or a vaccine is developed). edit: Sure there will be groups where this will be the case but not enough to cause packed bars.

JoeAltmaier 7y ago

With what cash? The 20M Americans out of a job will have spent any ready money on food and rent.

_curious_ 7y ago
Americans will find ways to spend money they don't have on things they don't need - like alcohol.
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  Don't know any bartender that will take a promise...
  - _curious_ 7y ago
    Do you know any people who will beg, borrow, or steal to purchase alcohol off-sale?

the_snooze 7y ago

Heading into the lockdowns, the data doesn't bear that out. Restaurant demand crashed before lockdowns were in place: https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry The US had a > 90% decline in bookings by March 18. California was one of the more aggressive places with issuing a statewide lockdown, but that didn't happen until March 19: https://abc7news.com/timeline-of-coronavirus-us-coronvirus-bay-area-sf/6047519/ https://abc7news.com/timeline-of-coronavirus-us-coronvirus-b...

standardUser 7y ago
Restaurants were closing or limiting business before official lockdowns in pretty much every jurisdiction that has had a lockdown. You need to look a week or two before official lockdown dates to see the start of declining business.