3 ms·

These early predictions were based inflated fatality rates. Early on, testing was only done on sick patients. People who contract the virus and don't get sick o

These early predictions were based inflated fatality rates. Early on, testing was only done on sick patients. People who contract the virus and don't get sick or don't get sick enough to go to the hospital aren't counted. So this is a huge selection bias. You didn't bother to cite where you're getting this figure, but it looks like this projection dates back to March 13 [1] or earlier. If you have a study that projects what the fatalities would have been with a shorter isolation period (e.g. only march and first two weeks of April), that would be noteworthy. Pointing to this early CDC study as a figure for what would have transpired had the economy not been shut down is not sound. 1. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coro...

nullc 7y ago
> These early predictions were based inflated fatality rates. Not so, for example the mortalities from the diamond princess are _higher_ than the ones being used to drive those projections. The fact that it takes time for people to die has held down the estimated mortality during exponential case growth.
- manfredo 7y ago
  The diamond princess' fatality rate was less than 1% - lower than the 1-3% used to drive early projections. Not to mention the fact that the cruise liner is disproportionately older, and the whole vessel recirculates its ventilation. This was, quite possibly, the worst population and location to have an outbreak and yet the death rates there were lower than the figure used for country-wide projections. Effectively every reputable source is observing that the early death rate projections were substantially inflated. China's reported death rate is 0.5% - and they're the ones with the most experience with the virus. Germany only recent started random testing. They previously had a fatality rate of 2%, but after random testing they found that 14% of the population already had antibodies - thus lower the death rate down to 0.37% [1]. There's a vast difference between asking "out of the people who got sick enough to go to the hospital, what portion people infected with coronavirus died?" and "what portion of people infected with coronavirus died".
  - nullc 7y ago
    > The diamond princess' fatality rate was less than 1% - You're using old data. 2% of the diamond princess infected have died so far. Another 7% of the infected are still reported as not recovered yet. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10867.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10867.html

nullc 7y ago

> These early predictions were based inflated fatality rates. Not so, for example the mortalities from the diamond princess are _higher_ than the ones being used to drive those projections. The fact that it takes time for people to die has held down the estimated mortality during exponential case growth.

manfredo 7y ago
The diamond princess' fatality rate was less than 1% - lower than the 1-3% used to drive early projections. Not to mention the fact that the cruise liner is disproportionately older, and the whole vessel recirculates its ventilation. This was, quite possibly, the worst population and location to have an outbreak and yet the death rates there were lower than the figure used for country-wide projections. Effectively every reputable source is observing that the early death rate projections were substantially inflated. China's reported death rate is 0.5% - and they're the ones with the most experience with the virus. Germany only recent started random testing. They previously had a fatality rate of 2%, but after random testing they found that 14% of the population already had antibodies - thus lower the death rate down to 0.37% [1]. There's a vast difference between asking "out of the people who got sick enough to go to the hospital, what portion people infected with coronavirus died?" and "what portion of people infected with coronavirus died".
- nullc 7y ago
  > The diamond princess' fatality rate was less than 1% - You're using old data. 2% of the diamond princess infected have died so far. Another 7% of the infected are still reported as not recovered yet. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10867.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10867.html