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IT DID. Do not pretend the past 2 months did not happen. You wonder why it "did not tank" but it DID TANK. It tanked when risks were unknown and everyone with

IT DID. Do not pretend the past 2 months did not happen. You wonder why it "did not tank" but it DID TANK. It tanked when risks were unknown and everyone with a calculator could understand that exponential spread could kill large numbers. Now 2 months later the exponential spread has been controlled. Now 2 months later those who think the economy is going to disappear have already sold. Anyone holding stocks now is doing so because they think Coca-Cola is going to be worth a lot of money over the next 30 years. Short of new and surprising bad news the market has no reason to price in further uncertainty.

nostromo 7y ago
It tanked down to basically 2018 levels. 2009 saw lows not seen in over a decade.
pbourke 7y ago
Do you think the market is appropriately pricing risk? Do you feel the economic outlook and prospects for growth are the same now as they were in June 2019 when the S&P 500 was at a similar level? Honestly I think the jury’s out on whether double-digit percentages of the S&P exist in their current form 2 years from now, even with the US government interventions.
- starbugs 7y ago
  Agreed. Price discovery feels broken to me. Maybe it is because of the FED interventions. Infinite is infinite, right? Perhaps the market is pricing in inflation instead of real growth? Perhaps it's because there's literally no other way of investing your money right now? It's really become hard to say. The downturn in the previous weeks seems to be way too weak given the current circumstances.
quickthrowman 7y ago
Q2 earnings season started this week, I expect the market to start pricing in reality again soon (down). There is no way we just go back to record low unemployment and high consumer confidence a month after the entire world was in lockdown.
anigbrowl 7y ago
Ahahaha, no. As in, it did tank but if you think it's all done now I think you're gravely mistaken. The financial crisis took a good 15 months to fully manifest and I could say the same thing about other recessions.
fallingfrog 7y ago
Come on now, that was nothing. Just took the last few months off the top of the bubble. The bottom is going to be somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 for the Dow.
- empath75 7y ago
  Usually markets bottom at the peak of the previous bubble in a crisis, so around 13-15000 seems right to me.

nostromo 7y ago

It tanked down to basically 2018 levels. 2009 saw lows not seen in over a decade.

pbourke 7y ago

Do you think the market is appropriately pricing risk? Do you feel the economic outlook and prospects for growth are the same now as they were in June 2019 when the S&P 500 was at a similar level? Honestly I think the jury’s out on whether double-digit percentages of the S&P exist in their current form 2 years from now, even with the US government interventions.

starbugs 7y ago
Agreed. Price discovery feels broken to me. Maybe it is because of the FED interventions. Infinite is infinite, right? Perhaps the market is pricing in inflation instead of real growth? Perhaps it's because there's literally no other way of investing your money right now? It's really become hard to say. The downturn in the previous weeks seems to be way too weak given the current circumstances.

quickthrowman 7y ago

Q2 earnings season started this week, I expect the market to start pricing in reality again soon (down). There is no way we just go back to record low unemployment and high consumer confidence a month after the entire world was in lockdown.

anigbrowl 7y ago

Ahahaha, no. As in, it did tank but if you think it's all done now I think you're gravely mistaken. The financial crisis took a good 15 months to fully manifest and I could say the same thing about other recessions.

fallingfrog 7y ago

Come on now, that was nothing. Just took the last few months off the top of the bubble. The bottom is going to be somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 for the Dow.

empath75 7y ago
Usually markets bottom at the peak of the previous bubble in a crisis, so around 13-15000 seems right to me.