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As far as I know there is pretty high confidence in vaccine development and reinfection is completely speculative and in most cases it was the same infection.

As far as I know there is pretty high confidence in vaccine development and reinfection is completely speculative and in most cases it was the same infection. Do you happen to have recent reports showing either problem?

dd36 7y ago
http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/25/coronavirus-vaccine-social-distancing-michael-mina http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/25/coronavirus-vacc... There are many seasonal coronaviruses that cause colds. We’ve never been able to create a vaccine. There was a NYTimes article in last few days, I’ll post it when I find it. EDIT: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-really-develop-a-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-rea... Finding lots of sources that there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine and that reinfection is common. So, thinking there will be a vaccine anytime soon is happy thinking. If it happens, it won’t happen fast enough to stave off a deep recession. I know I won’t be going out like I was.
- jjjensen90 7y ago
  There has also never been a massive global attempt at a coronavirus vaccine. Also many coronaviruses have wildly different behaviors and mutation rates. I think the answer right now is nobody knows for sure, but it will probably take at while for a vaccine if it's developed successfully, which would mainly at that point serve to prevent repeated lockdown cycles as it returns seasonally. Here is some further reading: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/co... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5
  - dd36 7y ago
    I agree. The OP suggested a quick and immediate bounce back soon. I’m pessimistic about that for the aforementioned reasons. “Nobody knows for sure” is a reason for short term pessimism not optimism.
- nimih 7y ago
  There exist successful veterinary coronavirus vaccines, and an optimist (at least, a sufficiently cynical one) would posit that we don't have any human examples because it has not previously been deemed sufficiently profitable (or, more charitably, an efficient use of resources better spent on more pressing issues) by whoever makes funding decisions for vaccine development, not because of a failure of science. Edit: That being said, efforts to develop a SARS vaccine were quite horrifying on whole, so there's certainly no natural law that says a vaccine must exist to be invented/discovered.
- grey-area 7y ago
  We’ve never been able to create a vaccine. Nobody has tried very hard because the common cold is unpleasant but bearable. This vaccine is now a global priority, there may even be a few variants discovered. Reinfection is neither common nor proven. Given the number of cases globally and the long incubation period plus unreliable tests such stories are not unexpected. I agree a recession and layoffs are coming to every sector, but war is a greater fear. This could cause more unrest and wars than 2008 did if it lasts longer than a few months.
  - jacobush 7y ago
    Imagine the common cold was also cured by some breakthrough in vaccine development. It (or its 200 variants, rather) may be merely unpleasant, but in aggregate, that's a whole lot of unpleasantness (and lost economic output).
    - allannienhuis 7y ago
      I'm don't ordinarily lean towards conspiracy theories, but its pretty easy to imagine the cold-medicine companies trying to think of ways of hindering any cold-vaccine development, in the same way that they actively seem to encourage people using their cold medicine to get back to work right away to spread that virus around some more. I'd love a world with less cold viruses running rampant. When I started working from home full-time (years and years ago) I immediately noticed that the number of colds per year I had went from something like 10-12 to 1 or less. And the colds I get now are usually correlated with a visit to my grandkids...
  - greedo 7y ago
    Nobody has tried very hard? Are you kidding? We've been trying for over 70 years since we first learned about rhinoviruses and their serotypes.
    - grey-area 7y ago
      Not very much money has been spent proportional to other diseases, for obvious reasons.
steelframe 7y ago
Here's a report that Immunity published that details a mind-boggling number of promising approaches currently under development: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7136867/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7136867/ It is way premature to declare right now that none of them will work out.
- dd36 7y ago
  We’re talking in the context of a recession. Continued social distancing will happen for a significant portion of the population until there’s a vaccine. A vaccine is far from a sure thing, especially anytime soon.

dd36 7y ago

http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/25/coronavirus-vaccine-social-distancing-michael-mina http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/25/coronavirus-vacc... There are many seasonal coronaviruses that cause colds. We’ve never been able to create a vaccine. There was a NYTimes article in last few days, I’ll post it when I find it. EDIT: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-really-develop-a-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-rea... Finding lots of sources that there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine and that reinfection is common. So, thinking there will be a vaccine anytime soon is happy thinking. If it happens, it won’t happen fast enough to stave off a deep recession. I know I won’t be going out like I was.

jjjensen90 7y ago
There has also never been a massive global attempt at a coronavirus vaccine. Also many coronaviruses have wildly different behaviors and mutation rates. I think the answer right now is nobody knows for sure, but it will probably take at while for a vaccine if it's developed successfully, which would mainly at that point serve to prevent repeated lockdown cycles as it returns seasonally. Here is some further reading: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/co... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5
- dd36 7y ago
  I agree. The OP suggested a quick and immediate bounce back soon. I’m pessimistic about that for the aforementioned reasons. “Nobody knows for sure” is a reason for short term pessimism not optimism.
nimih 7y ago
There exist successful veterinary coronavirus vaccines, and an optimist (at least, a sufficiently cynical one) would posit that we don't have any human examples because it has not previously been deemed sufficiently profitable (or, more charitably, an efficient use of resources better spent on more pressing issues) by whoever makes funding decisions for vaccine development, not because of a failure of science. Edit: That being said, efforts to develop a SARS vaccine were quite horrifying on whole, so there's certainly no natural law that says a vaccine must exist to be invented/discovered.
grey-area 7y ago
We’ve never been able to create a vaccine. Nobody has tried very hard because the common cold is unpleasant but bearable. This vaccine is now a global priority, there may even be a few variants discovered. Reinfection is neither common nor proven. Given the number of cases globally and the long incubation period plus unreliable tests such stories are not unexpected. I agree a recession and layoffs are coming to every sector, but war is a greater fear. This could cause more unrest and wars than 2008 did if it lasts longer than a few months.
- jacobush 7y ago
  Imagine the common cold was also cured by some breakthrough in vaccine development. It (or its 200 variants, rather) may be merely unpleasant, but in aggregate, that's a whole lot of unpleasantness (and lost economic output).
  - allannienhuis 7y ago
    I'm don't ordinarily lean towards conspiracy theories, but its pretty easy to imagine the cold-medicine companies trying to think of ways of hindering any cold-vaccine development, in the same way that they actively seem to encourage people using their cold medicine to get back to work right away to spread that virus around some more. I'd love a world with less cold viruses running rampant. When I started working from home full-time (years and years ago) I immediately noticed that the number of colds per year I had went from something like 10-12 to 1 or less. And the colds I get now are usually correlated with a visit to my grandkids...
- greedo 7y ago
  Nobody has tried very hard? Are you kidding? We've been trying for over 70 years since we first learned about rhinoviruses and their serotypes.
  - grey-area 7y ago
    Not very much money has been spent proportional to other diseases, for obvious reasons.

steelframe 7y ago

Here's a report that Immunity published that details a mind-boggling number of promising approaches currently under development: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7136867/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7136867/ It is way premature to declare right now that none of them will work out.

dd36 7y ago
We’re talking in the context of a recession. Continued social distancing will happen for a significant portion of the population until there’s a vaccine. A vaccine is far from a sure thing, especially anytime soon.