5 ms·

If you must ask, it's probably because you think it's a little bit of both. Anecdotally, I wonder the same thing myself.

babesh 6y ago
That was the case in the past several recessions. The only question is the relative mix in each company. And then if this recession persists then more and more knives come out as people fight each other for jobs within each company. Many people behave like shit when their livelihoods are on the line. Fun times. Also this bloodletting is happening at several levels. The VCs are performing the same decimation to their portfolio companies that companies are to their workers and vendors. Departments or groups in the company are drawing up lists.
- third_I 6y ago
  That sounds like... exactly the reality of such times, indeed. Well worded. There is a question, each time, of concurrent or even deeper cycles coinciding. The last recession is often thought to have been a prime factor in the revolutions of 2011 (Arab Spring etc). Regardless of their eventual conclusion, the push is deemed to stem (as always in history) from the economic situation. European kings knew all too well that hunger is a pretty sure path to insurrection. I wonder, given the predictable magnitude of this (by predictable I mean "even if we low-ball it"), what will happen in the next few years worldwide, and in particular in the US. I reckon "Occupy Wall Street" didn't really go far itself (although it's very likely a major factor in Bernie's rise in the years after, among many other things ofc). I expect to see a much deeper, less superficial reaction this time. A real history-mover. Time will tell. The initial reaction from the private sector we're witnessing as we speak is unprecedented in magnitude already; hitting the middle-upper class super hard (when Occupy Wall Street was mostly a lower-middle class fight versus the lavish establishment, from one extreme to the other; this is by contrast very "core"). Biological knowledge points to the current perception largely underestimating the eventual situations we'll have to face for the next 12-18 months (at least, assuming we are extremely lucky with a vaccine on first try, essentially; which I've heard no expert claim as particularly easy let alone a done deal, they're all cautious and don't even claim to be "certain" a vaccine is even possible, although "confident" certainly). Could be 24, 36 months of living with this thing disrupting the economy left and right, two steps forward, one back, two forward, three back, and on and on. The bloodletting and free-for-all has only just begun. I'm extremely afraid it'll be worse than any of us has seen since before WWII.
  - georgeburdell 6y ago
    >hitting the middle-upper class super hard What are you talking about? White collars are working from home, by and large. None of my engineer friends have lost their jobs yet (one is getting furloughed for a week though)
    - greenyoda 6y ago
      > None of my engineer friends have lost their jobs yet Most middle-upper class employees are not engineers. > White collars are working from home People can only work from home if they work for a company that has money to pay them - a company that hasn't shut down due to lack of business. A white collar employee working for an airline, hotel chain or car manufacturer (and all of these huge companies have huge ranks of middle/upper management in marketing, operations, HR, accounting, etc.) probably doesn't have a lot of job security right now. Also, the key word in your sentence is "yet". I'm a software developer, and I'm sure that if my employer's revenues drop significantly during the upcoming recession, layoffs will be inevitable.
    - cassalian 6y ago
      Not every software department has been so lucky... I had similar thoughts to you and what do you know? A quarter of my team was let go yesterday.
    - sciurus 6y ago
      In contrast, in the Atlanta and Nashville focused tech slack teams I'm a part of almost every day I see more developers announcing they've been laid off. My last two employers have had massive layoffs that included developers.
    - notyourday 6y ago
      That's because we are only in the fourth week of this. The revenue of non-essential companies plummeted. They are going to start cutting headcount by mid-may.

babesh 6y ago

That was the case in the past several recessions. The only question is the relative mix in each company. And then if this recession persists then more and more knives come out as people fight each other for jobs within each company. Many people behave like shit when their livelihoods are on the line. Fun times. Also this bloodletting is happening at several levels. The VCs are performing the same decimation to their portfolio companies that companies are to their workers and vendors. Departments or groups in the company are drawing up lists.

third_I 6y ago
That sounds like... exactly the reality of such times, indeed. Well worded. There is a question, each time, of concurrent or even deeper cycles coinciding. The last recession is often thought to have been a prime factor in the revolutions of 2011 (Arab Spring etc). Regardless of their eventual conclusion, the push is deemed to stem (as always in history) from the economic situation. European kings knew all too well that hunger is a pretty sure path to insurrection. I wonder, given the predictable magnitude of this (by predictable I mean "even if we low-ball it"), what will happen in the next few years worldwide, and in particular in the US. I reckon "Occupy Wall Street" didn't really go far itself (although it's very likely a major factor in Bernie's rise in the years after, among many other things ofc). I expect to see a much deeper, less superficial reaction this time. A real history-mover. Time will tell. The initial reaction from the private sector we're witnessing as we speak is unprecedented in magnitude already; hitting the middle-upper class super hard (when Occupy Wall Street was mostly a lower-middle class fight versus the lavish establishment, from one extreme to the other; this is by contrast very "core"). Biological knowledge points to the current perception largely underestimating the eventual situations we'll have to face for the next 12-18 months (at least, assuming we are extremely lucky with a vaccine on first try, essentially; which I've heard no expert claim as particularly easy let alone a done deal, they're all cautious and don't even claim to be "certain" a vaccine is even possible, although "confident" certainly). Could be 24, 36 months of living with this thing disrupting the economy left and right, two steps forward, one back, two forward, three back, and on and on. The bloodletting and free-for-all has only just begun. I'm extremely afraid it'll be worse than any of us has seen since before WWII.
- georgeburdell 6y ago
  >hitting the middle-upper class super hard What are you talking about? White collars are working from home, by and large. None of my engineer friends have lost their jobs yet (one is getting furloughed for a week though)
  - greenyoda 6y ago
    > None of my engineer friends have lost their jobs yet Most middle-upper class employees are not engineers. > White collars are working from home People can only work from home if they work for a company that has money to pay them - a company that hasn't shut down due to lack of business. A white collar employee working for an airline, hotel chain or car manufacturer (and all of these huge companies have huge ranks of middle/upper management in marketing, operations, HR, accounting, etc.) probably doesn't have a lot of job security right now. Also, the key word in your sentence is "yet". I'm a software developer, and I'm sure that if my employer's revenues drop significantly during the upcoming recession, layoffs will be inevitable.
  - cassalian 6y ago
    Not every software department has been so lucky... I had similar thoughts to you and what do you know? A quarter of my team was let go yesterday.
  - sciurus 6y ago
    In contrast, in the Atlanta and Nashville focused tech slack teams I'm a part of almost every day I see more developers announcing they've been laid off. My last two employers have had massive layoffs that included developers.
  - notyourday 6y ago
    That's because we are only in the fourth week of this. The revenue of non-essential companies plummeted. They are going to start cutting headcount by mid-may.