4 ms·

Yes. This is something I think about quite a bit, since I did used to work on climate-change related geophysics. If we started combating climate change decades

by cultus 7y ago

Yes. This is something I think about quite a bit, since I did used to work on climate-change related geophysics. If we started combating climate change decades ago, we wouldn't need such a drastic change. Realistically, no real change will happen for another decade, but our backs are already up against a wall. Having waited so long, the changes required are unbelievably radical and painful, in that our entire way of life must change. AOC and Bernie's Green New Deal is woefully inadequate, and that's considered extreme. I can't see that happening when we can't even figure out how to make paper face masks.

yters 7y ago
But if human civilization has flourished in much warmer earth in the past, why are you so convinced that a warming globe is necessarily a bad thing? Humans seem pretty adaptable, especially if the change is slow like climate change seems to be. That would seem like a good alternative view to investigate before putting all your money on "destroy the current world order".
- cultus 7y ago
  Human civilization has not flourished in a much warmer earth. That is 100% falase. Human civilization has only existed during the Holocene, which has been a period of stability. We are now in the Anthropocene. These changes are also very fast. By 2050, we will be living in a different world. Even in the 2030s, climate change will cause massive amounts of instability in developing countries due to droughts and famines, and huge migrant crises. It only takes 2-3 major food producing regions to have significantly failed harvests at once to have a famine on the scale of 1-2 billion going hungry. With a stable climate, this hasn't happened. However, it becomes more likely all the time. The changes we are facing will lead to large portions of the tropics being uninhabitable without A/C and unsuitable for agriculture. That is where most of the world lives. This change is happening very fast, faster than we can adapt. Our industrial civilization depends on immense resource consumption on a global scale. This will be completely disrupted. Trust me, I know a lot about the climate and its effects. It is a bad thing. No one seriously says it isn't. It's delusional to think it could be a good thing. Your line of thinking is just a continuation of the denialist garbage that got us into this mess.
  - yters 7y ago
    I'll take your word you are an expert, and what you say sounds alarming. I cannot make all the connections, though. For instance, much of the Middle East lives in temperatures that fry eggs during the midday. I was in Afghanistan during the summer, not always with A/C. Not pleasant, but I wouldn't say uninhabitable. I also wonder about being unsuitable for agriculture, since plants flourish in greenhouses, which are quite hot and humid. On the other hand, I can accept there will be large droughts, famines, and huge human migrations in the future. Our population continues to both climb dramatically, while congregating in a few very dense areas, mostly the cities where living is easier. That is clearly an unsustainable model.
    - cultus 7y ago
      I used to be a glaciologist, specifically. People don't grow significant crops in those hot deserts. Afganistan has hot summers, but not horrifically hot compared to some areas. Afganistan also has low humidity, which is key for our ability to perspire. The worst-hit areas are humid tropical climates. Middle eastern populations in the hottest and humidest areas usually have AC. Most other places aren't quite so bad, due to lower humidity if not lower temperature. Traditional populations lived in stone or mud brick houses that can withstand the midday heat better. There has been several occasions recently where the heat index has gotten near fatal in Rajasthan and Punjab, which caused quite a few deaths. Greenhouses aren't that hot, usually not more than 30C. Not many plants like it super hot. Even plants in hot climates will do better if its a bit cooler. With hotter climates, plants (at least the ones people rely on) undergo more heat stress and have shorter growing seasons. Much of Africa is drying, especially the Sahel. Similar situations will occur in many parts of S. America and Asia. A big distinciton here is timeframe and how much mitigation happens. We are more or less locked into a 3C rise, which is really bad. And that's our effective best-case scenario. However, if mitigation fails, and it has thus far, a 7C rise by the end of the century is not out of the question. That will lead to a total civilizational collapse and probably eventual human extinction. We wouldn't be able to maintain an industrial civilization in such an environment, and we'd have to fall back on localized, less industrial production. But, the environment would be so degraded that non-intensive agriculture probably couldn't provide enough food to stave off continual population declines.

by cultus 7y ago

yters 7y ago

But if human civilization has flourished in much warmer earth in the past, why are you so convinced that a warming globe is necessarily a bad thing? Humans seem pretty adaptable, especially if the change is slow like climate change seems to be. That would seem like a good alternative view to investigate before putting all your money on "destroy the current world order".

cultus 7y ago
Human civilization has not flourished in a much warmer earth. That is 100% falase. Human civilization has only existed during the Holocene, which has been a period of stability. We are now in the Anthropocene. These changes are also very fast. By 2050, we will be living in a different world. Even in the 2030s, climate change will cause massive amounts of instability in developing countries due to droughts and famines, and huge migrant crises. It only takes 2-3 major food producing regions to have significantly failed harvests at once to have a famine on the scale of 1-2 billion going hungry. With a stable climate, this hasn't happened. However, it becomes more likely all the time. The changes we are facing will lead to large portions of the tropics being uninhabitable without A/C and unsuitable for agriculture. That is where most of the world lives. This change is happening very fast, faster than we can adapt. Our industrial civilization depends on immense resource consumption on a global scale. This will be completely disrupted. Trust me, I know a lot about the climate and its effects. It is a bad thing. No one seriously says it isn't. It's delusional to think it could be a good thing. Your line of thinking is just a continuation of the denialist garbage that got us into this mess.
- yters 7y ago
  I'll take your word you are an expert, and what you say sounds alarming. I cannot make all the connections, though. For instance, much of the Middle East lives in temperatures that fry eggs during the midday. I was in Afghanistan during the summer, not always with A/C. Not pleasant, but I wouldn't say uninhabitable. I also wonder about being unsuitable for agriculture, since plants flourish in greenhouses, which are quite hot and humid. On the other hand, I can accept there will be large droughts, famines, and huge human migrations in the future. Our population continues to both climb dramatically, while congregating in a few very dense areas, mostly the cities where living is easier. That is clearly an unsustainable model.
  - cultus 7y ago
    I used to be a glaciologist, specifically. People don't grow significant crops in those hot deserts. Afganistan has hot summers, but not horrifically hot compared to some areas. Afganistan also has low humidity, which is key for our ability to perspire. The worst-hit areas are humid tropical climates. Middle eastern populations in the hottest and humidest areas usually have AC. Most other places aren't quite so bad, due to lower humidity if not lower temperature. Traditional populations lived in stone or mud brick houses that can withstand the midday heat better. There has been several occasions recently where the heat index has gotten near fatal in Rajasthan and Punjab, which caused quite a few deaths. Greenhouses aren't that hot, usually not more than 30C. Not many plants like it super hot. Even plants in hot climates will do better if its a bit cooler. With hotter climates, plants (at least the ones people rely on) undergo more heat stress and have shorter growing seasons. Much of Africa is drying, especially the Sahel. Similar situations will occur in many parts of S. America and Asia. A big distinciton here is timeframe and how much mitigation happens. We are more or less locked into a 3C rise, which is really bad. And that's our effective best-case scenario. However, if mitigation fails, and it has thus far, a 7C rise by the end of the century is not out of the question. That will lead to a total civilizational collapse and probably eventual human extinction. We wouldn't be able to maintain an industrial civilization in such an environment, and we'd have to fall back on localized, less industrial production. But, the environment would be so degraded that non-intensive agriculture probably couldn't provide enough food to stave off continual population declines.