You can get pretty far with a decent model when it comes to counterfactuals. We moved the economic impact earlier to trade down health impacts. In order for th

You can get pretty far with a decent model when it comes to counterfactuals. We moved the economic impact earlier to trade down health impacts. In order for there to not be some similar level of impacts, we either have to imagine a scenario where the disease was many times more benign than it has demonstrably been in some places, or where people ignore news as things get sufficiently dire and continue business as usual rather than dramatically adjusting behavior from normal circumstances. And both those things have to be true in order for the latter not to make a terrifying contribution, which would also make dire economic impacts: dead or damaged people are much harder to get back into the demand side of the economy than housebound or unemployed people. If you're thinking of worldwide counterfactuals, and know of any society that has a story involving staying broadly open that didn't use effective mass testing and contact tracing early, then specifics would be an interesting contribution.