4 ms·
Yes, I agree it is preliminary and not too much should be drawn off it. Every country is missing large numbers of cases, so CFR doesn't mean much - randomized
by usaar333 7y ago
Yes, I agree it is preliminary and not too much should be drawn off it.
Every country is missing large numbers of cases, so CFR doesn't mean much - randomized testing is what is needed.
Imperial College's paper (linked above which gives a 0.7% population IFR) uses Diamond Princess as an input. The relative risk ratio they give for someone age 70 (mean age on Diamond Princess) is something like 4.5x (IFR ~3%), so you'd natively guess about 80 deaths from the 2,666 passengers.
- zzzzzzzza 7y ago69 is the mean age of the passengers, the crew was like less than or equal 39 (about 2/3 passengers 1/3 crew I think)
- usaar333 7y agohence why I divided by the passenger, not total, count
- usaar333 7y agowhoops, sorry it's 567 infections in passengers with 13 deaths. 2.3% CFR. Expected IFR 3% from Imperial College (17)