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I strongly agree with everything you wrote. I think there is an alternative solution, though: Rather than maintaining a gigantic stockpile large enough to last
by kyboren 7y ago
I strongly agree with everything you wrote.
I think there is an alternative solution, though: Rather than maintaining a gigantic stockpile large enough to last a multi-year pandemic, it might be more efficient to maintain a modest stockpile sufficient for the breakout phase along with ready-to-deploy crash production capacity. This might be significantly cheaper.
This means that we need to ensure that we have the capacity to 100x, 1000x, 10,000x production--whatever is modeled to be enough to meet ongoing demand during a pandemic--within the time bought by drawing down the strategic reserve.
We don't need to maintain and refresh a complete stockpile of finished goods, or even a complete stockpile of production capacity (suitable factory floor space, meltblown nonwoven fabric equipment, etc.). We just need to know where such things exist that can be quickly directed to the desired use either with cooperation from the owner or with the DPA, how much exists naturally, and only if there is a deficit, to maintain a stockpile sufficient in combination with those identified supplies: Government-owned sterile factory floor space, for example, or spare production lines for meltblown nonwoven fabric.
We can even enlist private companies to maintain the stockpile for us. It makes way more sense to just subsidize e.g. 3M to have lots of extra meltblown nonwoven fabric production capacity. They are in the business, they maintain and operate the machinery and have the know-how and commercial connections to produce and distribute the material. They will have the capability to quickly respond to demand spikes if the capital requirements for increased production capacity already exist thanks to Uncle Sam's foresight.
Finally, what is maybe even more important than stockpiles or production capacity subsidies is the organization this exercise entails (knowing who makes what critical parts in the supply chain, where they are, what their production capacity is and how quickly it can grow, etc.), which gives an ability to rapidly marshal resources and eliminate inefficiencies to surge production as quickly as possible.